R.I.P. Rock the Red Era

You might still have some faith in these Caps. After all, there are still 5 games remaining in the regular season. The Caps are only 2 points out of 8th place. The Caps have the tiebreaker. And, because it's easy to do, you talk about Philadelphia's run to the Final in 2009-2010 after qualifying for the playoffs with their final regular season game victory over the Rangers. You never know, right?

Actually, yes we do. The Washington Capitals will not make the playoffs this season.

The jury is in on George McPhee. The jury is in on Alex Ovechkin. Dale Hunter didn't get it done. The jury is in on the rebuild. It is time to blow everything up and start over once again.

No longer can Ted Leonsis explain away another bed-shitting. Don't blame the learning curve. Don't you dare blame injuries. Don't blame the lack of home ice! Don't blame the sample size. The sample size is sufficient to draw these conclusions:

In the clutch, these Caps roll over and play dead. The "Rock the Red" Caps have abjectly failed.

In a way, it is only fitting that the Buffalo Sabres are the ones to put the final nail in this era's coffin. I remember when I was still in Alexandria, Virginia. It was April 2007. Glen Hanlon was still the coach. The Caps still had those ugly-ass black jerseys. They were about as close to the playoffs as Washington, DC is to Beijing (whereas now we're as close as DC is to Los Angeles, perhaps?).

That season, the Caps closed out the season at home vs. the Buffalo Sabres. The Sabres won the game 2-0 to clinch the President's Trophy. If you recall, that game is where this photo comes from:

The game was a sellout. But not one of those cute "Sea of Red" sellouts we have grown accustomed to (and are in danger of losing). It was one of those visiting fan aided sellouts that has plagued the majority of this franchise's history and very well could return next season if proper actions aren't taken.

You could hear lots of Sabres fans last night as Buffalo violated the Capitals 5 to 1. It wasn't ridiculous. It wasn't like Detroit's invasion during the 1998 Final. It wasn't like a Pittsburgh invasion. But, it was certainly noticeable.

It was a sign that a sizeable portion of the Caps' fanbase is ready to voice its frustration with the team in the form of not coming to games anymore. It is as if this team's atmosphere is about to come full circle.

Maybe the fans I reference are of the bandwagon/fairweather variety. Maybe a "real fan" might be sick and tired of the team shitting the bed, but still plans to come back for more poop. I probably fall into the latter category, but I also secretly wouldn't mind having another hobby at this point.

Regardless, it is time to waive the white flag with this group of Caps and make sweeping changes before it is too late.

When this era specifically began is hard to pinpoint. It obviously started on Bruce Boudreau's watch. Maybe it was his very first game in Philadelphia (that Backstrom OT winner off Ovechkin's flubbed pass).

Maybe it was when the Caps won 11 of their last 12 games to win the SE Division and qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2003. Maybe it was specifically the final 3 home games, which were all sellouts in DC.

For me, it was Game 1 of the playoffs vs. Philadelphia that year. Without question, it is the loudest I have personally heard the Verizon Center. It was my first "red out". There were hardly any Flyers fans in attendance. Mike Green had his mohawk going on. They were giving out free mohawks in the concourse.

At 2nd intermission the Caps trailed the Flyers 4 to 2. A fellow Caps fan walked past one of the few Flyers fans in the concourse and told him to go back to Philadelphia. The Flyers fan responded by telling him to "look at the ******* scoreboard".

Well, two Mike Green goals and a feared broken Patrick Thoresen testicle later - the game was tied. I was thrilled the game was going to go to OT.

But it didn't. Alex Ovechkin stripped Lasse Kukkonen of the puck and roofed it past Martin Biron for one of his most epic glass leaps of his career. The Caps took a 1-0 series lead courtesy of this 5-4 win.

Sure, nobody wanted the Caps to lose the series. I was also at the series' Game 7 in which Joffrey Lupul scored the series clincher to end the Caps' magical season. Yes, it was sad.

But there was hope. There was excitement. The team was on the upswing.

Not anymore.

The Caps might have beaten the Rangers in Game 7 the following year. But, they did their best to piss that game away.

DC followed it up with a stinker in Game 7 vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins - losing at home 6 to 2. The Penguins went on to win the Stanley Cup, but this was just "strike one" against the Caps (giving them a pass against the Flyers the previous year).

Then Montreal happened. After the Caps won Game 3 - a Montreal columnist sarcastically suggested that the Habs tank game 4 to allow the Caps to take a 3-1 series lead. After all, the Caps had no idea how to handle such a playoff lead.

For many, that was the breaking point. But, George McPhee stayed the course until the 2011 trade deadline.

Well, you know the rest. The Caps got swept in Round 2 by the 'Ning last year and George McPhee opened up the wallet during the summer of 2011.

Boudreau is out, Hunter is in, and the Caps got spanked last night vs. the Sabres.

I've had enough. It is no longer a fluke. McPhee has been around since the '98 run and he has not come close to recreating that success (which arguably he inherited from David Poile).

He has had his chance and it is time to replace him. He is not a bad man. Maybe there was the Eric Belanger incident. Maybe he was quoted as saying about his critics: "If they knew anything about the game, they'd be in it".

And, well, there was that one time back in 1999 when he punched the head coach of the Chicago Blackhawks after a preseason game. I actually liked that. If I had $20,000 to spare I would have paid his fine.

But, all in all, George McPhee was a professional man of integrity who just didn't get the job done. It is time to replace him. He built it - the team didn't perform - time to move on and part ways.

With that, Dale Hunter will be a casualty of the new general manager. He was on a one year deal to begin with. Maybe he never had the right parts to do his system. But, he showed very few signs of being ready for an NHL coaching gig.

I imagine the new GM will recruit someone with NHL head coaching experience to lead the Caps - something the Caps haven't seen since Ron Wilson or Jim Schoenfeld. Yes, have another donut, indeed.

As for Alex Ovechkin. Well, he hasn't performed in the clutch. At minimum, he should be stripped of the captaincy.

This "lead by example" shit isn't working. The team needs an "alpha-captain" comfortable making the locker room speeches.

I wouldn't mind having him on the team if his cap hit weren't so damn high. If there is a trade to be made involving Ovechkin, the trigger must be pulled. It won't be more than a few seasons before he is officially untradeable and he becomes the next Wade Redden - finishing out his contract in the AHL.

No longer can he be considered "the face of the franchise". No longer can he be the marketing centerpiece of the Caps. No longer can he be a sacred cow.

Maybe there is a role for him on a Cup-winning Caps team. But, not the way we had hoped. Not what was promised.

So as the cliche goes, for many it is time to break out the golf clubs. For me, it is time to put on the Nats hat and watch 6 months of baseball.

Sure, I will watch the rest of the season. I will monitor the offseason changes (as there will be plenty). But, I am tired of bullshitting myself.

You can hide behind the fact that the Caps aren't mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet. I won't.

Turn the lights out, the party is over.

Cyclones 3, Stingrays 2

When you are within driving distance of Columbus - you are also within driving distance of Cincinnati. On your average day, that is a completely meaningless tidbit for a Caps fan. But, unbeknownst to those who don't know it - Cincinnati is home to an ECHL team -- the Cyclones.

Tonight (and last night) the Caps' ECHL affiliate, the South Carolina Stingrays, were in the Nasty 'Nati to play the aforementioned Cyclones. So, for a weekend, the Queen City had a bit of relevance to the Caps organization. And while I did not attend Friday night's game -- I was at US Bank Arena tonight to see the 2nd game of the 2-game series.

On Friday night, the Stingrays dropped a 4-3 decision the Cyclones. So, tonight (Saturday) they were going for the split. Philipp Grubauer (4th round pick, 2010 NHL Draft, ECHL Goalie of the Month November + January) got the nod in net for South Carolina in both games. For what it's worth, I thought he played just fine tonight.

The Cyclones only had 17 shots tonight. Normally, when a goalie gives up 3 goals on 17 shots you could argue that is an inherently mediocre performance. But, I really don't think any of the Cincinnati goals could be pinned on Grubauer.

South Carolina, as a whole, struggled offensively and -- especially on the power play. The Stingrays were 1 for 7 overall on the PP tonight. The Cyclones took four minor penalties in the 1st period alone. Yet, Cincinnati led 2 to 1 at 1st intermission. Yikes!

The Stingrays opened the scoring via a 2-man advantage. While Cincinnati's Michael Pelech was in the box for a blatant hold -- Taylor Aronson (also of the Cyclones) took a sloppy delay of game penalty 14:16 into the 1st period. Just 21 seconds later, South Carolina's Mike Hamilton banged one in from very close range. But that 2-man advantage was the only time the Stingrays looked competent on the PP.

In fact, just 29 seconds after the Stingrays took a 1-0 lead, Cincinnati equalized with a 4 on 5 shorthanded tally. That goal - and all 3 of the Cyclones goals - happened at the far end of the arena from my seats. But, it just looked like shoddy defensive play in the Stingrays' zone that led to an inexcusable scoring chance for Cincinnati. In effect, Grubauer was hung out to dry.

I don't know if scoring a 5 on 3 goal only to give up a 4 on 5 goal is cause for post-game Herbies -- but it was sad to watch. With all the power plays that the Stingrays had in the first, I thought they'd head into the locker room up 2 to 0 or 3 to 0. But, towards the end of the first I thought they should be grateful to be tied at 1.

Of course, they didn't head into first intermission tied at 1. With just 28 seconds left in the first, Cincinnati's Maury Edwards blasted a slapshot from the point past Grubauer.  In my opinion, absolutely nothing the goalie could do on the play. In fact, I thought the shot was deflected along the way.  But, seemingly the official scorer thought otherwise. Not necessarily a defensive breakdown by South Carolina -- but obviously very bad form to give up a goal that late in the period.

From there I think the teams played an even, moderately exciting hockey game. There certainly weren't an abundance of scoring chances. If you like offense - the rest of the game was pretty disappointing. The one exception to that was the Stingrays' equalizer in the 2nd period.

Precisely 12 minutes into the middle stanza, South Carolina's David de Kastrozza found an opening in the high-slot and just roofed a nasty wrister past Cincinnati goalie Brad Fogal. Holy shit. Alex Semin would have been impressed. It was just a dirty shot. It was an isolated incident in a game with very few fireworks. But, give credit where it is due, that was, in my opinion, the most exciting moment of the game.

And, on the defensive side, South Carolina only allowed 3 shots in the 2nd period. Good for them. Again, though, with the ice tilted so much -- is only scoring 1 goal acceptable? I don't think so.

With the game tied at 2 heading into the 3rd period, it became a game that would be won by the team that wanted it more.

Or so I thought.

In reality, the game was won by the team that didn't screw up. More sloppy play from the Stingrays in their own end led to a fluke Cyclones goal 13+ minutes into the 3rd. Mathieu Aubin was credited with the goal for Cincinnati. It looked like he just deflected a stupid clearing attempt into the net. But, it was hard to see. Regardless of what happened, Philipp Grubauer was understandably caught off guard by this and had no time to react.

It was eerily similar to some of  sloppy breakouts South Carolina had in the first period. But, this play resulted in a garbage goal that turned out to be the game winner. As awesome as David DeKastrozza's goal for the Stingrays was, Mathieu Aubin's was a steaming pile of shit. But, this isn't the X-games. You don't get style points for goals. They all get you one on the scoreboard.

So, South Carolina failed at its attempt to earn a weekend split. It might be a bit harsh to say they self-destructed. But, for a team that only allowed 17 shots -- they allowed 2 shitty goals and another goal with shitty timing. Their offense -- save of the DeKastrozza wrister -- was flaccid.

Add it all up, and you have a disappointing loss.

As far as some of the other Stingrays who have been at a Caps Development Camp -- I don't think any of them did anything that truly stood out to the naked eye in real-time.

Nick Tabisz, Dustin Stevenson, and Brett Flemming combined for 0 points and 0 PIM. Out of the three, I saw Dustin Stevenson on the ice the most. Seemingly, he had a fairly solid game. But, both he and Brett Flemming finished the game at -1. Nick Tabisz, who I didn't see do anything spectacular, was on the ice for DeKastrozza's goal and finished with a +1.

South Carolina, having played the most games of any team in the Eastern Conference, sits in 4th place. The Cyclones meanwhile are in 8th place -- trailing the Stingrays by 8 points. Of course -- only in the minors -- the Cyclones have a whopping 7 games in hand on the Stingrays (and have played the fewest games in the Eastern Conference).

And, so my attempt to convince you that I am an ECHL fan ends. It was nice to get a whiff of the Caps' "AA" team. But, I don't know how many Stingrays games I'll catch on internet radio. I am curious to see if any of these guys make the double-jump up to the big show. From what I've heard, Philipp Grubauer has the best shot.

A sample size of 1 can obviously only tell you so much. I could see the AHL time being a lock. Hopefully, with him being only 20, he's got plenty of time to get up to the NHL. Good luck to him!

Well, the Hershey Bears lost tonight as well. So, the farm teams didn't get it done. But, the Caps got a 3-0 win this afternoon and they'll be on NBC tomorrow against the Bruins.

Who would have thought with the way the Caps have been playing they'd be the bright spot in the organization? Funny how things work.

Good luck to the Stingrays the rest of the way. And may we see the Bears and Caps make deep runs this summer.

See you all tomorrow afternoon on the Twittersphere for the Caps/Bruins game........

Caps Mediocrity

The good news about last night is that I had to stay in either way.  My early Saturday necessitated that. As such, I did not miss out on a hoppin' party or a date night to catch the Caps/'Canes game.

That's about the only good news that came out of the game. The roller coaster that is the Caps' 2011-2012 season continues. One game we look great. The next game we look like an ECHL team.

That got me thinking about whether or not the Caps' opponent plays into the Caps' performance. How are we against teams that are above .500? Below .500?

So, that's what I tracked. I went back and looked at the opposition's record coming into their game against the Caps. I also separated the Boudreau era from the Hunter era.

Long story short, Hunter has pretty much the same winning percentage as Boudreau - but Hunter has had easier opponents.

That's not to say that Boudreau hadn't lost the team or needed to go - but hopefully it is a friendly reminder that the Caps need pick it up several notches. The returns from Huntsy being the coach have been far from realized.

The Caps' overall record against above .500 teams isn't horrible (.500 on the nose), but it isn't stellar either. With the Caps backing into a low seed in the playoffs - it seems like getting bounced in Round 1 is the most likely outcome.

An artificially inflated #3 seed might buy the Caps a trip to the 2nd round. But, that's about all you can hope for right about now.  Of course, this all assumes the Caps make the playoffs.

Last season, a 2nd round exit was cause for anger. If we are being truthful with ourselves, the way the team is playing - a 2nd round exit would be cause for celebration.

And in case you were wondering:  the average win percentage of opponents entering a game with the Caps is .497 (simply add all 46 win %'s and divide by 46). So, if anything, we are getting off a little easy with our schedule thus far.

Plus, if you're a true math nerd and think simply averaging the win percentages is not the right way to do it - Caps opponents to-date combine for 516 W, 435 L, and 130 OTL. That would be a win percentage of .477 - even worse than the average......

Your move, Caps.  I'm all for being pleasantly surprised..........



*Click on any image to enlarge it*

Team $ Efficiency

As I type this, the Washington Capitals are playing the Pittsburgh Penguins. Due to the way NHL Gamecenter works, I will have to watch the game in a few hours. When games are on NBCSN or NHLN, the games are blacked out on NHL Gamecenter. If your cable provider offers NBCSN and NHLN, well, that really isn't that big of a deal. If you live where I live, it is an issue.

In the meantime, I thought I'd take a look at each team's performance in the standings relative to their payroll.  I did a few spreadsheets that look at the money each team has to pay per standings point. I then compare their rank in that category to their projected finish in the regular season (pure rank order, not accounting for division leaders getting the top 3 seeds).

When you get to the difference between the rankings of "Payroll $/Pts 82" and "Pts/82" you are getting a handle on whether or not a team is outperforming its (in)efficiency.

For instance, the Washington Capitals have the 11th-highest (as in worst) Payroll$/Pts82 total in the Eastern Conference. That is horribly inefficient. 

The silver lining is, that given the Capitals are projected to finish 9th in the Eastern Conference, they have a +2 difference and are outperforming their payroll inefficiency.

Of course, they would still be playing golf by mid-April. But, what can you do? Hopefully Mr. DVR will have some good news for me in a few hours.

Standings are from NHL.com prior to the action on Wednesday night.  So, the Caps/Pens game and the Devils/Oilers games are not included.  Cap info is from Capgeek.

* You can click on any chart to enlarge it*

Eastern Conference:

Western Conference:

MoneyCaps: The (Almost) Halfway Point

With my apologies to Tomas Kundratek, who did not get called up in time for my super-special analysis, I present to you some ad-hoc number crunching.

In my attempt to become more data savvy, I thought I would get in some practice. As is the case with the book Moneyball, I thought it would be fun to link Caps' player salaries with their performance.

Hopefully there is a conversation to be had here (part fun, part serious).  For this initial round, I merely took players' point totals and projected them out to 82 games.  From there, I divided that number into their cap hit.

Obviously, this assumes they will be able to play somewhere in the ballpark of 82 games.  One might cough and vomit when looking at Mike Green's generous point projections.  You are free to do so.  But, some common denominator was needed. And, in all seriousness, it does show his value -- or lack thereof -- when healthy (even if he never is and has no prayer of cracking 20 games this season!).

This data sticks to a player's offensive value.  We'll get into other metrics later. Stats are from hockeydb.  Cap info is from Capgeek.  It is current as of January 10th, 2012.

Keep in mind, the higher the $ amount in the righthand column, the more expensive it is to the Caps to get a point from that player. As such, the lower the offensive value for that player.

I'll give you a hint:  I don't like that Alex Ovechkin is the first name to pop up.......

*You can click on any chart to enlarge it*


                                 Caps Forwards (10 games or more)

                                     Defensemen (10 games or more)

                     Forwards and Defensemen Combined (10 games or more)

               

Getting on the Bus, the C-bus

Last night was a very special night indeed.  Simply put, the Caps' Saturday night game vs. the Columbus Blue Jackets was within driving distance for me - so I was at Nationwide Arena cheering for (our) boys in red, white, and blue.

When I lived in DC I probably took my proximity to Verizon Center for granted.  As life has taken me away from Washington over the last few years, it has become increasingly difficult to see the Caps live (especially because "away" means proximity to Western Conference teams the Caps visit 1x/season at most -- which does not guarantee a weekend game that is doable).  Sure, sports bars and NHL Center Ice exist.  But, make no mistake about it, hockey is a game to be seen in-person.  And it is always better to see the Caps play hockey in-person.

Even if they only show up for 8 minutes of the game :)

Before we get to the game itself, let me say this.  It was truly awesome to see how many Caps fans were in Columbus.  I am horrible at estimating numbers.  And, no, it was not anywhere near the Detroit invasion of the 1998 final.  But, there is no way in hell Columbus sells out that game without all the red rockers in attendance.  I met some of the dedicated Caps Road Crew members at R Bar before the game - who drove from DC.  But, rest assured, they were far from the only Caps fans at Nationwide Arena last night.

Between all of the Caps fans roaming the Arena District and the presence of some chain restaurants I enjoyed in DC, but not in my current town (Ted's Montana Grill, Gordon Biersch, BD's) - it was a very welcomed dose of home on the road.  I guess I should be thankful that the format taking effect next season guarantees a team will visit every other arena one time per season (much better than the current 'maybe, maybe not' policy).

So, anyway, aside from conjuring up feelings of nostalgia - the hockey game had a very important two points on the line.

The big difference in preparation for this game is that Columbus had Friday off after a Thursday win in Dallas.  Washington was "fresh off the plane" after their Friday night home victory vs. Buffalo.  And let's face it, Buffalo is in our conference and was 1 point behind us in the standings coming into Friday's game.  They have spanked us twice this season.  Columbus is in the other conference and is the NHL's worst team.  So, while Columbus most likely viewed the Caps as a "statement game" and threw everything they had at us --- Washington probably viewed the game in Columbus as the only thing standing between them and New Year's Sex.

Of course, it shouldn't be that way.  The Caps certainly have not been playing consistently enough to view games as afterthoughts.  They certainly have not displayed that blue-collar work ethic enough to justify looking down on teams.  And, as the Caps are still on the outside looking in of the playoff race, they certainly are in no position to piss away points in the standings.

So I will leave it to you to decide.  Did they coast their way through the first 40 minutes of the game for no good reason?  Or, were the Caps justifiably tired as they were playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the back-end of a back-to-back set?  Did they get cocky after big wins vs. the Rangers and Sabres?  Or, was Columbus just that good on Saturday night?

Whatever you think, it is with mixed emotions that I announce the Washington Capitals that get spanked in games are gone.  The Caps that we all know, love, and hate are officially back.

Yes, those Washington Capitals that give no indication whatsoever that they give a flying fuck about the game until the 3rd period.  Those Washington Capitals who put together one 5 to 10 minute stretch of disgustingly awesome hockey and have that stretch carry them through the game.  The Caps that watch their two Russian superstar snipers light up the scoreboard.  The Caps that can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat like it ain't a 'thang.

Welcome back, Cardiac Caps.

God bless Columbus.  It must be frustrating to be a Blue Jacket.  They certainly owned the first two periods.  They brought energy.  They threw bodies around.  They generated scoring chances.  Derek Dorsett did an amazing job of agitating Alex Ovechkin (even goading AO into going to the penalty box at the same time as Dorsett - a trade the Blue Jackets are obviously willing to make).

I don't know who the hell John Moore is and I had no idea Samuel Pahlsson was still in the league.  But, those were well earned goals by them.  Both of them, btw, got their 2nd tally of the season with their goals last night.

At second intermission, I even tweeted that I thought the Caps had no chance of coming back.  They looked dead and uninspired.  It just wasn't their night.

And there's the rub.  Just like that, it was their night and they played like the game was never in any doubt.

Ovechkin has the puck squirt over to him.  Boom!  1-2.  A few minutes later, Alexander Semin shows off the dirtiest wrist shot in the league.  We're tied at 2.  Not even a minute later and Dennis Wideman drills it past Steve Mason.  We're up 3-2.  A PPG by Ovechkin and this one is in the bag.  4-2 Caps.  Ok, they had to kill a penalty after that.  But, they did.  And, they won.

Finally, three straight wins.  The last time the Caps did that was the the final three games of their 7-0 start to the season.

With wins against NYR, BUF, and CBJ seemingly the Caps are starting to work their way out of their doldrums.  But, where to?  Maybe we've just gone from the Caps who weren't even going to make the playoffs back to the Caps who will make the playoffs only to crash out in early rounds.

But the thing is, if I had to pick between those two types of Caps (play like shit and not even make the playoffs vs. string together enough good hockey to get into the playoffs but most likely crash out early), the one I'd have is rather obvious.  Because only one of those choices allows for the possibility of finally mastering the playoffs and winning the whole damn thing.  You gotta be in it to win it, right?

Well, for many reasons personal and hockey related, I am more than happy to leave 2011 in the past.  I look forward to 2012.  And so should the Caps.

Because while both myself and the Caps struggled for most of 2011 - we enter 2012 with something we are more than happy to see again:

MOMENTUM!

Happy New Year.  May you have an awesome 2012........

Progress: Capitals 3, Senators 2 (OT)

Maybe my standards are just artificially low because the Caps have been going through a prolonged rough patch.  However, while there is certainly more work to be done - it seems like the Caps have an extra bounce in their stride again.  It looks like they have that energy and confidence they were lacking - at least there is a lot more of it there than any time of recent memory.  It looks like game-by-game, Dale Hunter's system is starting to sink in.  There are indeed signs of life from the boys in red.

While Neuvy looked relatively good given how he's been playing, I thought he should have had Ottawa's first goal.  I also don't like the fact that the game went to OT.  The Caps should have closed this out in regulation.  But, obviously, if it's going to go to OT - it might as well end the way it did :).  Our PP needs to get back on track if we are truly going to be an elite team - and right now it is just heinous.  I thought given the amount of pressure we put on Craig Anderson - our ability to finish chances is still lacking.  Of course, having chances to not convert on is a huge step forward from simply not having any scoring chances.

All that said, much, much better.  Backstrom's goal was a sick wrister.  Brouwer's goal came from a beautiful chain of passes (Ovi and Wideman get the assists). And, Brooks Laich's goal was just blazing speed from him as well as Jason Chimera.  For a "defensive system", there was certainly a lot of offensive pressure and offensive beauty generated by the Caps.  That alleviates a big concern of mine (which I address in my last post).  The Caps had 35 shots on goal, many of them high quality.  A little more confidence from their finishers - and this very well could have been a 4-1 or 5-2 decisive win.  Good thing the Caps have a chance to pull that feat off vs. Ottawa on Wednesday in Ontario.......

The Caps also never trailed in this game.  That only happened one time during the month of November (4-3 OT win vs. Winnipeg on 11/23/11 -- ok, they never trailed New Jersey at home on 11/12 until they lost the shootout -- call that what you want).  The Caps only committed one penalty and it was in the first period (a very blatant slash by Jason Chimera on Daniel Alfredsson).  Jeff Halpern was 7 for 8 from the faceoff dot.  Only one Capital was a - in the +/- category (John Carlson,    -1).   Alex Ovechkin had a respectable 4 shots on goal, including one breakaway (Laich had 6 SOG and Chimera had 5).  In addition to scoring the team's second goal, Troy Brouwer led the Caps with 6 hits.

Many other bloggers/analysts have pointed out the shorter shift lengths for the Caps - especially on the penalty kill.  The penalty kill looked good (as did the Capitals' ability to not need many penalty kills).  So, I guess the special teams area of improvement would be the dreaded power play.

Long story short - a shitload of progress tonight.  The Caps still need to get back to work.  They have still been playing poorly more often than they have played well.

But, they have something to build on and Huntsy has his first win as an NHL coach.  Let's roll the dice and see what it gets us on Monday night - with the big tilt vs. the SE Division's leading team, the Washington Capitals alumni club of South Florida......I mean the Florida Panthers.

 

Patience (aka "Rebuilding the Rebuild")

Well, there certainly have been better days in Capsville.  Of course, when being honest with oneself - those better days were never that much better.  Nevertheless, things aren't going so well.

If the season were to end right this second - the Capitals would not make the playoffs.  Granted, they are the #9 seed and have 1-game in hand on the #8 seed, the Ottawa Senators (with 58 games left to play in the season and only trailing by 1-standings point).  But, they are on the outside looking in during a season in which the playoffs are supposed to be assumed.

The Caps are about to play said Ottawa Senators tonight in an attempt to get Dale Hunter his first win as the Caps' head coach.  It would also snap a 4-game losing streak (the first two of which, cost Bruce Boudreau his job).

In fact, the Caps have lost 8 of the last 10 games and are unrecognizable from the big swinging dicks that started the season 7-0 and beat the Detroit Red Wings 7-1.

You could argue til the cows come home about when this started.  George McPhee said he noticed stuff during training camp.  Some people (namely, Mike Milbury, Canadians, and people who jerk off to Sidney Crosby (with a lot of overlap between those categories)) would lead you to believe the Ovechkin-era Caps have always been overrated.

Maybe the Montreal series should have been a red flag.  Or the Tampa series.  Or the way they got outplayed in Vancouver - or gave away the game on Long Island - or got throttled by Dallas.  Maybe the wins against Pittsburgh and Tampa earlier this season were lucky.  Maybe the Caps are fine and it is just a matter of getting Mike Green healthy again.  Ok, scratch that last thought.  The Caps are not fine.

If there is one thing that we can all agree upon, it is the Caps are NOT fine.  Bruce Boudreau did magical things for this team from 2007 until this week (just not THE magical thing).  But, George McPhee was spot-on when he said that Boudreau's tank was emptied.

The problem is - that really is all we know.  Yeah, it was time for a change.  But, to what?  We've eliminated one variable, but must now focus on the rest of the variables.

Alex Ovechkin has 8 goals in 24 games.  Alex Semin has 5 goals in 23 games.  Ovechkin isn't even on pace for 30 goals.  Semin isn't even on pace for 20 goals.

Meanwhile, Dale Hunter's strategy will focus on defense - which will, in theory, lead to more offense.  It does not, however, focus on letting freewheeling Russian pimps be freewheeling Russian pimps.

It is hard to say how I feel about that.  My gut instinct would be that you need to take the chains off Ovechkin and Semin - that Caps fans have bought a bunch of bullshit produced by Caps-haters (the BS being that Ovi and Semin are cancers).

But, the truth is, as much as I hate the stupid stereotype that Russians have bad attitudes (see, Detroit Red Wings and the "Russian Five") - I think Ovechkin and Semin have become predictable.

I think the league has figured out Ovechkin and Semin and while these two may care - I don't see them doing what is necessary to become less predictable.

We will see flashes of brilliance from Ovechkin and Semin - for sure.  But, the frequency and brightness of these flashes will be reduced over time if things stay constant.

I don't care if they care.  I care if they work at mixing up their skill-set.

Until they do, it kind of takes care of any plan that involves having the Caps become more run-and-gun.  But, then, if the Caps are going to prioritize defense - will that leave room for Ovi and Semin?

I don't know if I buy the whole "defense leads to offense" strategy.  If the goal is to win every game 2 to 1 or 1 to 0 - that's fine.

My only real vested interest is in seeing the Caps score at least 1 more goal than the other team 16 times during the playoffs.  That leaves a lot of room for being boring - and that's ok.

But, as many have noted, the high-flying show is on hiatus.  There will be no 5 to 1 victories in the near future - I do not believe.  Dale Hunter might believe that, I do not.

Ovechkin and Semin will not have the chance to run-and-gun - even if they could still do it.  And I don't know if Alex Ovechkin and Alex Semin will fit in with the high-flying show on hiatus.

That's not to say they will play horribly.  But, they'll be very expensive pieces to the boring show.  And, with the Caps at the salary cap - does that mean they will be dealt to free up some space?

That would not be terribly shocking for Semin - I think this is his last season as a Cap regardless - it's just a matter of whether or not he's dealt before the deadline.  I don't see them re-signing him in the offseason.

Obviously, it would be huge news if Ovechkin is dealt.  Mike Milbury and all of Canada would rejoice that they were right all along.

It would be a telltale sign that the once promising rebuild failed.  We might not have to start from scratch - as we did with the Jagr firesale - but it would be equally discouraging.

I can't imagine the impact on the fanbase that trading Ovechkin would have.  Attendance would certainly suffer.  Die-hard fans would point to the number of times Ted Leonsis has asked for patience - only to then ask for more patience.

Frustration would boil over - even if it happened to be the right thing to do.  Even if trading Oveckin simply meant the Caps were self-aware and on track to implement their defensive strategy - trading Ovechkin would be horrible.

Thankfully for Ovechkin and Semin, the entire team is playing like shit.  So, it's hard to pin all of this on them.  The goaltending has been shit and the defense has been shit too.

Jason Chimera is one of a few bright spots on this team.  But, with everyone else needing a swift kick in the ass - Alex Ovechkin and Alex Semin must be given a chance to fit into Dale Hunter's system.

Dale Hunter must be given time to implement his strategy.  Two 2 to 1 losses do not a bad coach make.  The good news is that there is plenty of time to turn this around.

The problem is that I have no idea whether or not Dale Hunter's approach will work - or if the right pieces are there to make it work.  I just know that Bruce Boudreau's approach stopped working.

I still want to believe in Alex Ovechkin.  I still want to believe in Alex Semin.  I still want to believe in the Caps.  I want to believe in Dale Hunter as a coach in the NHL (and George McPhee and Ted Leonsis for that matter).

I just don't know if Ovechkin, Semin, and Hunter will co-exist on the Caps.  And I don't know if the Caps will do what is necessary to align their strategy and their personnel.

Until then, without blaming a specific person, there could be more dysfunction and underachievement.......

Back on the Saddle

It has been more than three months since my last post.  Seemingly life has gotten in the way of hockey (and that is UNACCEPTABLE).  My period of unemployment came to an end and I changed towns again - a recurring theme in my life since leaving DC in 2008.  However, this time - there is no planned move on the horizon.

While having income again is a good thing (namely, because income can be used to purchase the NHL Center Ice package) - it leads to non-hockey responsibility.  Getting to know a new town and a new corporation has been my focus.  It's amazing that some companies expect you to talk about their primary line of business all day instead of hockey.  The nerve!!!!!!

I have been able to watch Caps games, mind you.  I've seen them all this season (7-0 seems like a decade ago!).  However, when I've been watching them I've been doing so less critically than an aspiring blogger should.  By the time I would get around to watching the game - my brain was interested in shutting off.

To be sure, if you want to make a living in this business - you have to do your research and look at the stats.  You can't just say "Roman Hamrlik played like shit" (even though sometimes it is painfully obvious).  You have to look at his +/-.  You have to know +/- is a BS statistic.  You have to look at Corsi numbers and analyze the even-strength chances Hamrlik has given up per 60-minutes.  You should know his defensive pairings and which opponents he is matching up with.

Somewhere between my transition, a lack of confidence, not knowing what this blog's niche is, and the underrated beauty of just saying "Roman Hamrlik played like shit" without having to defend your position with stats - this blog fell off the map.

The truth is, I still don't know what this blog will be.  I'd love to make a habit of regular interviews.  I thought the Mike Fornes interview was an overwhelming success.  Even as of last week, someone has found it on the net and commented on it.

But, that's the problem.  It seems like that interview accomplished everything I wanted my blog to accomplish.  It seems like there is nowhere to go but down.

Speaking with Mike Fornes encapsulated everything that following the Caps as a kid meant to me.  Each subsequent post has seemed "a little off".

The truth is, I'm not Neil Greenberg.  I'm not going to be the guy who adds to the "Moneypuck" discussion.  And, I'm not anywhere near the superfan that JP over at Japers' Rink is (or anyone on that blog, for that matter).

But, something keeps me watching the Caps game in and game out - no matter where life takes me.  And something gets me back on the laptop every now and then.  I played when I was younger.  I even officiated for a bit.  There was also the idea that ran through my head, which was to be a hockey announcer.

I'd like to think I have something to add to the blogosphere.  I'm not yet sure what that is, though.  So, I keep plowing through the experimental stage of this blog - hoping it leads the blog to "the next level" (whatever that is!) - as opposed to having the blog fade into oblivion.

We will see.  I don't know if I'm in this to clear my head, to get readers, or to somehow have my opinion validated as a "quasi-expert" (maybe all three????).

It's kind of like the answer to our burning question of burning questions:  "Will the Caps ever win the Stanley Cup?" ----

Only time will tell.

The Hockey World Mourns.....Again

Ok......this is one tragic summer in the hockey world.  First Derek Boogaard.  Then Rick Rypien.  Now Wade Belak.  I say this with all sincerity....

WHAT THE FUCK?

It is incredibly tough to face the possibility that such a beautiful game - the same game that we all worship for its speed, toughness, athleticism, excitement, and FUN - the same game that helps us perpetually feel like a kid - could torment its players so much.

We must first acknowledge that it might all be a horrible coincidence.  Derek Boogaard and Rick Rypien died from different causes.  We do not know the official cause of Wade Belak's death.

There are, I'm sure, statisticians or economists or cultural anthropologists (or whoever) that can argue that these three tragic deaths had nothing (or very little) to do with their time on an ice rink.

Maybe the spike in deaths for hockey players 35 and under is in-line with the spike in deaths for the entire population of people 35 and under.....

Seriously, though, who cares?

The fact remains, all three were hockey players.  All three were fighters.  All three died this summer.

Even if it turns out to not be necessary, better safe than sorry.  Now is as good a time as any to have a deep, introspective look at the lives of hockey players.

How widespread of a problem are painkillers?  Are they over-prescribed?  Do teammates pass them around to other teammates?  Do players know not to mix them with alcohol?

How widespread of a problem is depression?  Do players have access to counseling?  Are they even aware how to spot depression in themselves?  Is there a stigma about getting help for depression?

How widespread of a problem is retirement-related depression?  Do players feel like they are abandoned by the NHL once their playing days are over?  Can they find a "2nd life" and are they equipped for it?

What about fighting?  Is there long-term damage to the brain?  Does that impact a player's mental health?  Do they simply develop a guilty conscience and depression regarding having to beat people up for a living?

What about alcoholism, drug abuse, spousal abuse, you name it?

I could go on and on and on.  The point is, if I'm Gary Bettman or part of the NHL-brass, I'm making damn sure that behavioral health systems are updated, robust, made available to all players, and players know it.

And I wouldn't even stop at the NHL-level.  I would go all the way down to juniors.

One could argue that if somebody grows up depressed, starting to get counseling when they hit the NHL is too late.  The counseling needs to be made available from the beginning.

If it means supporting community-wide mental health programs (as opposed to just ones for hockey players) so be it.

If it means getting rid of fighting, then it means getting rid of fighting.

If it means partnering with Dr. Phil and Dr. Drew - then that's what it means.

If I'm Gary Bettman - this is priority #1.  Whatever is #2 is a distant #2 at best.

Three lives is three too many.  I'm sick of this shit.  The game is too beautiful.

When I think of hobbies that will keep me engaged as a senior citizen - continuing to watch hockey games is at the top of the list.

Hockey is supposed to give people reasons to live, not reasons to die.

Gary Bettman and the NHL:  Fix this shit.  NOW.

Part 2: Walton Gets the Call

This column will most likely be much shorter than my rant about Steve Kolbe.  That is because I am filled with negativity as a human being and well, I don't have many mean things to say about John Walton.  By all accounts he is a guy who worked his ass off in the AHL and did a great job with the Hershey Bears.  So his call to the NHL is, if anything, long overdue.  I do give myself the right to nitpick as I will shortly do.  But I'm sure when John Walton got a call from Bruce Boudreau that he was now the Caps radio guy, he felt like Harold and Kumar did when they finally made it to White Castle (and NPH paid them back for messing up Harold's BMW).  In fact, what would make this complete is if John Walton actually downed 50 cheeseburger sliders to celebrate his job with the Caps.  He probably found a more profound way to celebrate, but such is life.....

Let's be clear:  John Walton belongs in the NHL and he is undeniably an upgrade over Steve Kolbe.  But I am still curious as to how his tenure in DC will go.  Will he be regarded as a "good" NHL announcer or a "great" NHL announcer?  His job should be safe either way because 1) Ted Leonsis doesn't seem interested in a widespread search for the position (sticking to his "build from within" strategy) and 2) John Walton blogs and tweets which I think in Ted Leonsis' mind is what got Walton the job.  I personally still believe in the value of a "great" radio announcer (irrespective of their social media skills), but I have to admit that I am part of a dying breed - that from a revenue perspective "good" is good enough on the radio these days.  It's a shame, but times change -- and social media is probably more important to an owner's brand than radio.

That said, let's see how Caps fans react to Walton's call (the bulk of the fan base, which probably has not listened to him in Hershey).  I personally have listened to his calls in Hershey periodically.  For a short while, I interned with another AHL team and cut highlights from Hershey broadcasts.  But, I can't claim to be a Hershey die-hard.  So it's not like I listened to him day-in and day-out.  I do have my general impressions from his broadcasts.

1)  Technically speaking, John Walton can describe the action 100x better than Steve Kolbe and is very good at an absolute level.  This is probably his greatest strength - and a good one to have.  I appreciate the fact that not once in my time listening to him have I said "How the hell did the puck get from point A to point B?".  God willing I will have TV access to many of the Caps games this year, but when I need to listen to the radio I know I won't need a translator or feel like I'm missing out.  John Walton keeps you focused on the in-game action.

2)  He is honest.  The one trend that has gone under the radar while owners worry about their announcers' social media skills - is that most owners view announcers as part of the PR department (see Redskins and Larry Michael).  I've heard John Walton bluntly call out Hershey Bears players for sloppy play or soft goals allowed.  That is what gets you my respect.  This isn't a frickin' job interview.  It's not your job as an announcer to sell tickets (well sometimes it is, but that's another story).  If it's a team weakness, please don't spin it or minimize it - tell it like it is.  My understanding of John Walton is he does exactly that.

I hope to God that John Walton doesn't compromise his point of view for the sake of Ted Leonsis or the organization.  The Caps will never look as bad as the Redskins - so in a relative sense they aren't guilty as all hell.  But make no mistake about it, the Caps prioritize having a strong PR arm.  And say what you want to about Mike Vogel's writing ability, but from what I've seen he generally stays on the side of not being critical of the team.  I never heard Steve Kolbe be as obnoxiously pro-team as Larry Michael, but I never heard Steve Kolbe call out the team either.  John Walton will hopefully continue to tell it like it is.  At least I'd respect that.

3)  John Walton is seemingly more social than Steve Kolbe.  This isn't about blogging or tweeting.  This isn't a popularity contest or being a part of the cool kids club.  But, it is about knowing the players and being able to share qualitative insights during the broadcast (not robotic stats).  Stats play a role and can't be ignored, but I think John Walton will do a much better job of talking about a specific player's development in Hershey, their approach in practice, or anecdotes from the road.  This should make the broadcast much more entertaining than a Kolbe broadcast.

4)  On the downside, my opinion is that John Walton's voice is just "ok".  It is a little gravelly to me.  Again, I would take John Walton's voice over Steve Kolbe's any day of the week.  But in an absolute sense, I wonder if Caps fans who are new to him will warm to him in this regard.  There is a parallel between John Walton's voice and Chuck Kaiton's voice (Carolina Hurricanes) and Chuck Kaiton seems to have his die-hard fans.  But that type of voice can go either way.  So let's see if Caps fans say "John Walton's voice is better than Steve Kolbe's voice" or if they say "John Walton has a good voice".

5) I am unsure about John Walton's vocabulary - it might be a little too plain.  Again, neutral is better than bad.  It's not like the guy can't speak English.  I'm just saying this might be a missed opportunity for differentiation.  His signature call of "Good Morning, Good Afternoon, and Good Night" is again - just "ok" in my book.  Not to beat a dead horse, but after years of Steve Kolbe - just "ok" is much preferred to "I wish I could stab my ears out".  I don't want Bob Costas calling my games either, mind you.  Not every game needs to remind you of the maudlin time your dad whisked you away on the New York subway to see the illustrious Mickey Mantle for your 7th birthday (hey, I tried!).  But maybe John Walton could use a little more of that?

6) I also wonder if John Walton enjoyed a psychological lift from the Bears' performance.  I mean, the Hershey Bears won 3 Calder Cups while John Walton announced for the team.  Let's see if fans hold him in high regard with the Caps continually shitting the bed in the playoffs!  I mean, I don't have the study in front of me, but there has to be some correlation between a team's performance and how announcers are viewed.

One announcer who pimps it out?  Dave Jageler!  Yes, the Nats are up-and-coming, but they still suck.  Yet, Dave Jageler is the man!  Let's see if John Walton can win over Caps fans despite the Caps underachieving in the playoffs**

**The Caps are of course free to make this a non-issue by winning the Stanley Cup, but I don't want to become the Chief Executive Officer of Fantasy-Land just yet......

Well, so it is.  John Walton gets his call to the big leagues.  Bravo to him.  Do you know him better than me?  Chime in!  Like I said, I'm not a John Walton expert just yet - just sharing some general impressions.

Let's see if he's "good" or "great" at the NHL level.  I'm pulling for him, though.  It's been a long time since I've enjoyed listening to a Caps radio broadcast.  I don't know what I'll do with myself this season!

Season Wrap-Up

So it is.  My first few months of blogging have come to an end.  I'm glad I did this - as starting a blog has helped me keep in better touch with the team from far away. It has also satisfied some of my journalism cravings.

The highlight of this experience has clearly been my two interviews (Mike Fornes and Charlie Skjodt/Brad Lutsch). Absolutely great to pretend for a few hours at a time that I am a member of the media.

I probably won't add any posts during the summer - as whatever awards/draft/free agency/development camp news there is can be handled by others.

Further, from a personal standpoint, I will be moving and also planning to start a new job.  So it is a time of transition for the Caps Degenerate.

But, next season I will hopefully be able to blog more frequently and in a more detailed fashion.  By fall, the transition period will have ended and I will likely be able to focus on this blog consistently.

Thank you very much for reading.  May we, one day, find out what it feels like to see the Caps win the Stanley Cup.

Oh, and if you happen to have any suggestions for what to include in this blog next season - please email me.

Capsdegenerate at gmail dot com

All too Familiar Feeling

In 2003, when Tampa Bay beat the Caps in 6 games, Ted Leonsis said that Tampa was the better team.  I always disagreed with that.

And I disagree with the theory that Tampa was the better team in 2011.  I will never think that they had more talent than us.

But, in 2003 and 2011 - Tampa proved to be a damn good team that wanted it more.

And they executed while the Caps didn't.  And one could argue Tampa out-coached the Caps too.

The Caps progress in the playoffs has stagnated while Tampa somehow seems like they are on the up-and-up for the second time in the past 10 years.

Any way you slice it, the Caps are done like dinner far too early.

Again.

We now get to watch the rest of the playoffs while coming to grips with the fact that, no, this isn't the year.

We'll get to see another team skate around with that Stanley Cup thing we've been chasing since the beginning of time.

How messed up would it be if while all of this self-promotion in DC was going on, the Lightning won the Cup in 2004 - blew their team up - and won the Cup again before Washington got a whiff of Lord Stanley?

The Caps face a summer of what should be drastic change.  We can analyze who stays and who goes later.  For now, just time to soak in that all too familiar anticlimactic feeling of an early playoff exit.

And unlike the past 3 playoff exits, there are no more excuses.  There are no alternative explanations.

The system - as we know it - is broken.

No spin.  No talk about how long it took Gretzky to win a Stanley Cup.  No asking for more time.  The new iteration of the Caps just isn't getting it done in the playoffs.

It sucks.  But it is time to stop defending them and face some harsh truths.

Not fun.

Yet, watching the Caps get eliminated never is........

No Joy in Capsville

Well, sometimes death comes in an annoying manner and it sets you off into a depression.  That's what happened last year with Montreal.  I couldn't even explain that 1st round exit.

But after watching Game 3 vs. Tampa tonight - I am at peace with the end of the season.  You add it up and this is Tampa's series.

Tampa has enough defense and goaltending to keep the Caps at bay.  They have a lot of talent on offense.  And whatever questions are left, the Caps shoot themselves in the foot to remove any doubt.

The Caps led 3 to 2 after the 2nd period.  And all they needed to do was play 20 more minutes of hockey to get back in the series.

They obviously did not want to do that.  No ref issues.  No dirty play from Tampa. No nothing.  Just the Caps laying an egg when they needed to play hockey the most.

The sad thing is, I have to go back on my last post.  I think Bruce Boudreau is done.  He is a regular season genius.

But, if there is a guy who didn't get it done in his 4 playoffs with the Caps - he is it. Too much talent to just make the 2nd round twice.

The Caps continue to piss on their window of opportunity.  They will soon face issues with losing free agents and determining if there are any "young guns" that need to be traded.

What is that magic system that will get the Caps to the promised land?  It seems as hard to find as that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

So, yes, tomorrow I will wake up and hope for a miracle.  I will watch Game 4 and root for the Caps.  That's just what I do.

And there is still that 2% chance that this post will become a quasi-collector's item.  After we go on to win the Cup, we will just laugh at how we felt when the Caps were down 3 to 0 to Tampa.

Like any Texas Hold'em degenerate clinging to one out to the river - there is always hope.  You're not dead until you are drawing dead.

But really, the straight flush never hits.  It certainly won't hit the Capitals.  Not Wednesday night.  Not this series.

One more hockey game before some very tough questions hit this franchise.  This promises to be a very depressing off-season for the Caps.

The media is getting behind the Caps.  The fans are getting behind the Caps.  The league is getting behind the Caps.

They just aren't getting it done.

It's not Mike Wilbon's fault. It's not Tony Kornheiser's fault. It's not ESPN's fault. It's not Scott Burnside's fault. Or Mike Milbury's fault. It's not Sidney Crosby's fault. It's not Canada's fault. It's not the Southeast Division's fault.

It's the team's fault.

At least I'll be clean-shaven and have a fresh haircut to deal with whatever fallout comes after Game 4.

Margin of Error Exhausted vs. Tampa

This has been a busy week for the Caps Degenerate from a personal standpoint.

It has also apparently been a busy night for our country, with President Obama announcing the death of Osama bin Laden.

So, blogging has taken a backseat over the last few days.

That said, the hockey has continued. I'm still a little upset they didn't postpone the games and make sure I was ready to go :).  I keed, I keed.

As we all know, the Caps lost Games 1 and 2 at home to Tampa Bay. The season could be over by Wednesday.

Then again, in 2003, the Caps won Games 1 and 2 against Tampa Bay on the road -- only to drop the next four and lose the series.

So, maybe this weekend just sets up some Triple-OT goal the Caps will score in Game 6 to end the series. You never know, right?

Thus we try and explain the mood that I'm in following the pair of losses handed to us by the Lightning.

I obviously hate losing. The Caps have taken stretches of each game off -- and that is unacceptable. And our power play sucks. I mean, it's just horrendous.

I honestly think the Caps would be better off declining the man-advantage whenever a penalty is called on the Lightning. Can they do that? They should!

You also have to give credit where credit is due. The Lightning have established a maddeningly smart pattern of playing just enough defense and getting (much more than enough) goaltending to keep the Caps from opening the scoring floodgates.

Then, they come down the ice - and they use their finishers to finish. I don't think Neuvy is playing all that bad.

But, Tampa is getting goals from their goal scorers -- or the Capitals defensemen. And they are scoring with less effort than the Caps.      

At the end of the day, that makes a huge difference. Tampa is capitalizing on its chances, Washington is not.

So, there is some luck involved - and there are some tangible reasons why the Lightning are up on the Caps 2 games to 0.

I think the good news is that without question -- the Caps are the better team in this series. And if they tighten up their game a little bit and finish their chances, they very well could win this series in 6 games.

The Caps still should win the series in 6, in my humble opinion. But, emphasis on "should" (not "will").

The Caps also very well could be telling the starter at the first tee on Thursday morning that they were clearly a better team than Tampa.

Where does that get the franchise?

My friend, who was kind enough to let me watch on his HDTV, asked me if Bruce Boudreau gets shitcanned if the Caps lose this series.

I said probably not. I don't think there is any shame in losing to this Tampa team. I think Stevie Y. is a genius and the Lightning are going to be contenders for years to come -- including this year.

But really, the window is closing. The Caps reign over the SE division is coming to a close (see Tampa). And so far, all this reign has gotten the Caps is two trips to the second round.

Maybe this year is better than last year. But, it's still not enough.

Which is why the Caps have to get back in this series before it actually is over.

Whatever urgency the team has played with needs to be quadrupled. Fuck next year. Fuck thinking long-term. Now's the fucking time.

The Caps have to act like the world ends in July and this is their last chance to win the Stanley Cup. They need to kick the shit out of Tampa in Game 3.

Not just win. Send a powerful message.

This series is by no means over yet. The Caps can and should win the series in 6.

But will the Caps make it happen?

Game 5 = Cloud 9

After Jason Chimera scored his double OT goal in Game 4, I wanted to think the series was over.  Sure, there was the Caps' history of choking away 3-1 leads.

But, really, New York was broken.  Right?

Then I decided to turn on the Lightning/Penguins game at noon as a preview to the Rangers/Caps game. I was feeling good. I was also fully expecting Pittsburgh to close out Tampa Bay.

Pittsburgh, as you know, took a 3-1 series lead over Tampa Bay the same night that the Caps went up 3 to 1 on the Rangers. Also, in 2 OT.

Well, let's just say Pittsburgh did not close out Tampa Bay.  Tampa Bay kicked the shit out of Pittsburgh 8-2. Their series continues.

And all of a sudden I had doubt. Maybe momentum means nothing.  Maybe I was going to go from this really content, relaxed state of being to feeling like Armageddon was upon us again.

Sure, I was used to it.  I am a Caps fan after all.  But not again.  Really?  Could the Caps have a chance to go for the jugular and lay another fucking egg?

I mean, the mighty Penguins just did.  And, FSN Pittsburgh showed that the Penguins are "a lot and one" in series that they have a 3-1 lead.  The Caps were 2-4 in such series going into today's game.

Thankfully, the Caps did not lay an egg.  Seemingly, the only point of criticism you could put on them is that they did not play a perfect-perfect game.

Finally though, the Caps showed me they wanted the series. It was by far their most complete effort of the series. Even better than the Game 2, 2-0 win.

They indeed, went for New York's jugular and got it. They didn't fuck around. The game was never really in question. From start to finish, the Caps ran the show.

Thank God!

Washington picks up its 2nd-ever series win after holding a 2-0 series lead. They are now 3-4 when having a 3-1 series lead.

Baby steps, right?

This is quite the welcome change from the utter despair I felt last season after the Caps dropped Game 7 to Montreal. Or, two years ago, when the Penguins demolished the Caps in Game 7.

Or, three years ago when I personally witnessed Joffrey Lupul's Game 7 winner for the Flyers.

And so on and so on.

Even the 2009 series win vs. the Rangers had this weird feeling to it.  Why did the Caps go down 3 to 1?  Why did it take 7 games?  Why did they come out flat in Game 7?

There will be reality checks to be had. The Caps will have to get back to business, to be sure. If you don't think the Caps can improve from this series, think again.

There are 12 more wins to go. The team is only 1/4 of the way to its ultimate goal.

And really, you can't pretend that getting out of the 1st round for the 2nd time since 1998 is akin to winning the Stanley Cup.

The last time it took fewer than 7 games for the Caps to close out a series was against Buffalo in 1998.

Since that series, the Detroit Red Wings have won 16 playoff series in less than 7 games. They have appeared in the Stanley Cup Final 4 times, winning 3 Stanley Cups (including against us in '98).

So, there is more work to be done before we have an impressive playoff resume.

But, in the series that matters most - the one that was most recent - the Caps did have an impressive resume.

Perfect or not, the Caps effort in this series got the job done quickly. It took 5 games + roughly 3 overtime periods. There was only 1 loss.

Only the Detroit Red Wings won their series faster. The Caps have time to rest their bodies. Us fans have time to rest our minds.

There is plenty more emotional trauma to be had. More Mylanta to be consumed. And in the end, we might not be satisfied with the Caps' run for this playoff season.

Who knows what the 2nd round will bring us....

Which team will the Caps play? How will the Caps perform? Will it negate the great feeling of beating the Rangers? Will it take the Caps to the team's 3rd ever conference final?

These are indeed questions to which we need answers.

But not yet.

There are a few days to take another deep breath. To relish in beating a team that beat us 7-0 and 6-0 in the regular season. A team that supposedly was our worst nightmare 1st round matchup.

This series could have gone many ways. Yet, it went our way.

Enjoy the thrill of victory, Caps fans.

See you in the 2nd-round!

Holy Shit! Game 4 to the Caps!

This is the problem when you have to watch at a sports bar - no laptop with you. Absolutely no way to describe how many different thoughts I've had about the Capitals since 7 p.m.

Next season, you will get my real-time stream of consciousness.....until then......just know this:

I'm spent.  Good Lord am I spent after watching that game!

I was ready to write a scathing article about the lack of character the team had when it was 3-0 Rangers.  And I'm still kind of pissed off that the team hasn't learned to play a full 60 minutes. 

Of course, you know what happened in the 3rd period and the 2nd OT.  

Holy Shit indeed!

Give credit where it is due.  The Caps came back in spectacular fashion tonight. And like many, I'll take this uneven performance and 3-1 series lead over a hard-fought loss and a 2-2 series.

I have to go to bed so I can't fact check, but I'm pretty sure this is the franchise's first-ever multiple OT playoff game win.  Crazy, huh?

(UPDATE: Big thanks/stick tap to the Peerless Prognosticator for confirming that it is the Capitals 3rd ever multiple OT playoff win. 1985 vs. NYI and 1998 vs. Boston. For some reason I didn't remember Bellows' goal being in the 2nd OT, but it most certainly was. Good omen? Hopefully!)

Like I've mentioned before, I'll take the emotional abuse the Caps give us in tight games over the easy way out and early exits.

But, emotional abuse it is.  The Caps are like a manipulative girlfriend.  They treat you like garbage in critical times.  And every time you are ready to leave, they do just enough to get you to stay.

So I stay.  I take this 3-1 series lead and a big sigh of relief into the next day.  And I get ready for the next round of emotional trauma the Caps will inflict on us this Saturday.

Because as well all know, this series is not over yet.     

God willing though, the Caps will just kick the shit out of the Rangers in Game 5 and close out the series on Saturday.  

Time to chug another bottle of Mylanta and go to bed.  Enjoy the win.  Someone buy Jason Chimera -- and any other Capitals player you see fit -- a beer.  

See you for Game 5!

Here We Go Again

Sunday morning when reading the Washington Post and Katie Carrera's preview of Game 3, I had a Harry Doyle moment. Harry Doyle, as you may recall, was Bob Uecker's character in the movie Major League.

I know that when it comes to hockey playoffs, history is not on the Caps' side.  If they are the underdog, they seldom pull off the upset.  If they are the favorite, well, they seldom do as they are supposed to do.

But I never really paid attention to records or statistics.  I just have a general feeling of trepidation when putting "Capitals" and "playoffs" in the same sentence.

I know, generally speaking, that a 3-1 series lead or 2-0 series lead isn't safe in DC.

But, one thing Ms. Carrera poignantly called attention to in her preview is that in the 5 total seven-game series in which the Capitals have held a 2-0 lead,

the Caps are 1-4.

"That's all we got?  Is one goddamn series win?"


While the league's historical rate for closing out 2-0 leads is 86.6% (266/301 - WaPo), the Caps are lagging that slightly with their 20% success rate.

Ain't that some shit.


I mean, I remember 1998 vs. Ottawa. Hell, I was at Game 2! I had just returned from college and an old teammate invited me to the game. Boy, we stomped the Senators that night!

If I had known at the time that I would be witness to the Caps only 2-0 series lead that would result in a series win - I would have done something memorable.

I was under 21 and the "Phone Booth" isn't a college bar, so I wouldn't have gotten drunk. And I probably wouldn't have set anything on fire. That would be arson.

But I would have done something, dammit!

13 years later, we try for that lofty goal of converting on a 2-0 series lead (in 7-gm series) for the 2nd time in franchise history.

And we have encountered our first setback. The Caps will not win 16 straight en route to their first Stanley Cup. There will be no sweep of the New York Rangers (would have been franchise's first sweep in a 7-game series).

The Rangers didn't seem to do anything different. Maybe there were a few more pronounced porn 'staches. Also, instead of Sean Avery being a pest, Sean Avery and Brandon Prust were pests.

Neuvy seemed a bit rattled though. I thought he would have just ignored. He has ice in his veins, right?

The Caps never had the lead. OT seemed likely, but Brandon Dubinsky had something to say about that.

So rather than rest comfortably for the next three days, I live in fear. You see, in playoff hockey, the result clouds the game.

Maybe today wasn't a New York Rangers blow out. Maybe the Caps came out a little flat and a little sloppy, but responded and played a decent enough game. They still could have won.

But they lost. So it feels like Armageddon is upon us.

And now you have to look back at Games 1 and 2 and say those games were pretty close as well. So maybe the Caps were fortunate to win those games.

But they won those games. So it felt like the Stanley Cup was coming to DC.

Thus the series stands 2 games to 1 in favor of DC. I would like to think that Game 3 will serve as the proper wake-up call.

The Caps will become hungry again. They will take no shit from the Rangers on Wednesday night. Game 4 will be much more smooth for DC.

I mean seriously, if the Caps can't get motivated to kill the Rangers in Game 4, then what business do we have talking about the Stanley Cup?

Rather than let an inferior team with inferior tricks succeed against DC, the Caps will calmly remind the hockey world that John Tortorella is a one trick pony, Sean Avery is a douche, and New York as a whole is overrated.

I see no reason why this won't be the case. I have faith in my team. I have faith in Neuvy.

And after Game 4 is done, the Caps should have a stranglehold on the series with a commanding 3 games to 1 lead.

Of course, by my count, the Caps are 2-4 (in series outcomes) in which they have held a 3 games to 1 lead.

The ONLY two series in franchise history that the Caps have converted a 3-1 series lead into a series win took place in 1998 (vs. Ottawa and Buffalo).

I guess the bright side is that when the Caps get off their rear ends and decide to do something with the series leads, they go far in the playoffs.

But really. As we all know, the only 3 games to 1 series lead this iteration of the Caps has seen, it pissed away to Montreal last year.

Shit.

Speaking of Major League, I'm going to make like I'm GM Charlie Donovan meeting with Owner Rachel Phelps and go chug some Mylanta straight out of the bottle.

Someone please remind me that past performance is not a predictor of future behavior?

Phew!

I think the quote of the night comes from my friend, who is a Blackhawks fan:

"The Capitals are the most tortured franchise when it comes to the playoffs and how the team finds ways to lose.  You're going to complain about how they won this game?" 

Well, kind of.  Nice response via Ovechkin's equalizer. What a blast by Semin! And the Caps, for the most part, had a solid defensive game.  Neuvy indeed matched Hank in net.

But, something just didn't seem right.  The way they started flat in the third period is inexcusable. The fact that the power play is still inept bothers me to no end. 

Yes, in fairness, the Rangers were 0 for 2 on the PP as well.  But talk about DC missing a chance to take a solid lead in the first period........

The fact that the 1-seed had to come back to force overtime to win this game against an 8-seed.  

Even though the Caps won, it was eerily familiar to last year's Game 1 vs. Montreal.

They need to step it up.  If the Caps play full-throttle then they can win the remaining games by a score of 4 to 1, or something to that effect.  

And maybe that's the thing.  I don't feel that the Caps played full-throttle tonight.  

What are you waiting for????????  It's the playoffs!!!!!!  Now's the time!!!!!!!!

This series does NOT need to be close! 

I'll take the win.  A win is a win is a win.  But, I'm still not convinced the Caps want to go deep this year.  

After all this franchise has been through, that scares me.

I hope I'm dead wrong.  

And I hope the Caps show me something more in Game 2.

Let the Games Begin!

It is go-time.  It is officially the day that Game 1 will be played.  Bring on the Rangers!  

Yes, that lowly, 8th-seeded Rangers team - aka - the team that took 3 of 4 games from DC during the regular season.  

And let's not get into the score of two of those games.

I will say however, that I am glad the Rangers beat the Caps 6 to 0.  That game was right before the trade deadline.

It was a reminder to George McPhee that he couldn't stand pat.

I don't know what he was thinking or when, but he certainly could not have gotten away with doing nothing after that game.

Funny how things go in life.  As an "old school" Caps fan, I am supposed to favor match ups with former Patrick Division teams.

But the Rangers were so 2 years ago.  And I kind of wanted to see what it would be like to face the Hurricanes in the playoffs.

Alas, the Hurricanes had their chance and couldn't get it done.  The Rangers did.  

And so we play the Rangers.

Looking back to two years ago it seems that many people remember that the Caps won the series against the Rangers before losing to the Penguins in round 2.

(As an aside, that is the opposite of what happened in 1994, but I digress)

Many people remember Sergei Fedorov's goal 3/4 of the way through the 3rd period of Game 7.  They remember that the Caps won the game 2 to 1.

What is sometimes swept under the rug is that the Caps went down in the series 3 games to 1.  Included in that was dropping Games 1 and 2 at home.

The Caps were the 2-seed.  The Rangers were the 7-seed.  Yes, the Caps won, and got the franchise's first (and only) playoff win since 1998.

But, that series was disproportionately too close for comfort.  And while the Caps showed up in Games 5 and 6 to force a Game 7 -- they came out flat as a pancake in Game 7.

Let's remember that it was the Rangers that scored first in Game 7.  And quite frankly, Alexander Semin's equalizer was a fluke.

It was damn near 2-full periods later when Sergei Fedorov won it for DC.  There was a lot of jubilation in DC, to be sure.

But in my mind, it was mainly relief.  

Had the Caps not won that game and followed 2009 with the same 2010 loss to Montreal, Bruce Boudreau would have been fired last summer.  

No question about it.

But as in life, the hockey playoffs are a game of inches.  The Caps did win.  The 3-1 deficit quickly became a distant memory.  

And further, the Caps put on a hell of a show against the Penguins.  

I know.  The Caps blew a 2-0 series lead.  Again.

The Caps laid a big egg in Game 7.  And lost to Pittsburgh - AGAIN.

But, in totality, I take that series against the Penguins over the series against the Rangers any day of the week.

Of course, the Caps took their learnings from 2009 and learned in 2010 that they weren't suited for the 2nd- round.  But, let's pretend that never happened.

****************************************

Fast forward to now.  What does this all mean?

As much as I think that John Tortorella's "the pressure is on them" approach is worn-out, he obviously gets results from his teams.

The Rangers are confident.  And they will get a leadership boost from the return of Chris Drury.  They have shown an ability to defensively handle the Capitals too.

But rather than clamping down in a defensive shell, if the Caps are to win this series, they have to overcome the Rangers defense and light the lamp.

For some reason, I'm not worried about Henrik Lundqvist.  I get it, 11 shutouts.  

But, I think the Caps have an ability to break him.

Not just in the form of crashing the net.  But on first chance shots as well.  Let's not forget that Ovi has a rocket.  And so does Semin - who performed well against the Rangers in 2009.

Yes, the Caps need to create screens and crash the net for rebounds.  But they need to wear out King Hank's glove hand from minute 1 -- and open up the top shelf.

The offense is at full-force right now.  Everybody is healthy.  And if they aren't so predictable and lazy as they are when they are playing bad hockey, they should be fine.

Move the puck around.  Keep the Rangers on their toes.  Keep Hank moving laterally - get the open shot.

And they should get the puck in the net.

Skate down the middle.  Shoot from the blue line with nobody else in the zone. And you've basically just created a turnover.

Stick Green and Arnott on the points for the power-play.  Hopefully that will work enough magic to keep the Rangers from feeling they can take penalties whenever they want.

Neuvy will be fine.  I'm not worried about him. He's a cocky little SOB.  And he knows Varly and Holtby are waiting in the wings.

Something tells me he's a gamer.  Maybe the 14 playoff series he's won in North America.  I don't know.  But I think Neuvy will wind up matching Lundqvist's performance - if not bettering him.

I'm not worried about the Rangers offense.  As long as the Caps stay healthy on defense, they should be able to handle the Rangers attack.  Especially with Ryan Callahan out.

Wideman will be out.  Let's see how Green performs defensively?  He stepped up his defensive game in the regular season, but let's see if he can get it done in the playoffs. 

Fair or unfair, the last Caps/Rangers playoff memory of Jeff Schultz is from 2009 when Brandon Dubinsky broke his ankles and won Game 1.  But Schultz has stabilized since.  He should be ok.

Erskine did a marvelous job of handling Sean Avery in 2009.  I think he is underrated as all get-out.

Hannan is a rugged defenseman.  And hopefully the Carlzner wonder-boys will be a solid pairing.

But if one person gets injured, there really is no depth.  Tom Poti isn't ready to return.  Then it's on to Tyler Sloan, Brian Fahey, or Sean Collins.

Overall, the D should get it done, if healthy.  

As long as the offense steps up - we should be ok.  We are deep in goal.  Our penalty kill should be fine.

Hopefully, the power play will come to life as a result of the offense coming to life.

Long story short, the Caps control their own destiny.  They either want it and come out with intensity - or they suffer a fate more embarrassing than that of last season.

It's game time.  People have every right to question the Capitals' playoff toughness.  

The Caps have 1 playoff series win since 1998 - and it relied a little too much on luck for my taste.

They either want to do something about that or they don't.  They are either pissed off and ready to re-write history or they are confined to self-fulfilling prophecies.

It's up to them.  Now's the time.  

Show us what you're made of, Caps......