Summer Thoughts

Yesterday was July 4th, our country's 235th birthday.  And it was two months ago yesterday that the Caps' 2010-2011 season ended.  The Lightning swept the Caps.  Just as the Caps breezed through (kind of) the Rangers in 5 games and fans started to think that maybe this playoff season would be different - it wasn't.

So the Caps hit the golf course early (or "on-schedule" depending on your opinion) and the Boston Bruins did what we wanted to do.  I personally think it would have been much more fun to read about Alex Ovechkin and Brooks Laich splitting a $100,000 bottle of Ace of Spades champagne, but whatever.

One thing is for certain:  this isn't the summer of 2010.  I don't think anybody will catch George McPhee saying "I don't want 5 off days to ruin our plan" this summer.  As we all know, he has been quite busy thus far.  Holy shit has he been busy.

And the consensus is (rightfully so) that George McPhee has done a helluva job thus far -- especially in net.  But seemingly some fans have gotten carried away and are already beginning to mutter the "c-word" (no, not that one ladies).  I meant "contender".  Or maybe even "Cup".

As good of a job George McPhee has done thus far, it is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too early to start saying shit like "This is the year".

Has George McPhee pulled off some A+ moves this summer?  Yes.  Without question.  Is the team better?  Yes.  Absolutely.

But are we going to dominate this year?  I would argue that remains to be seen.  Here are some concerns:

* When all is said-and-done this summer, the Capitals will most likely either be at-the-cap or barely below it. That leaves very little margin for error in George McPhee's moves. He will have a hard time addressing any problems uncovered during the regular season.

* While I like our top-7 defensemen very much (sub Alzner for Poti), it starts to get murky once you hit defenseman #8 (Sean Collins).  One injury come playoff time and that could screw-up everything.  See Dennis Wideman this past year.  Just a gut feeling, but I get scared when I think about just having 6 of our 7 top d-men healthy.  Something about being able to rest capable d-men on occasion makes me comfortable.  Maybe this is a common concern among NHL teams, but it still applies to the Caps......

* Ultimately, what we are changing with our forwards is "character" and "leadership".  That makes sense to some degree.  And many would like to believe that is a damning indictment of just Alexander Semin.  But Semin isn't the captain and he's not the coach.  You get my drift?

* When we start publicly blabbing about what system we think will win us a Stanley Cup, we look amateurish and predictable.  Honestly, when it comes to systems, I don't think we have a frickin' clue what we are doing. One minute we are offensive, the next minute we are defensive.  Guess what?  Neither worked.

* So that leaves our coach, Bruce Boudreau, and our top offensive talent of Alex Ovechkin, Nick Backstrom, and Alex Semin.  There is still some disconnect there.  God forbid, we have the wrong "top-talent".  Or maybe the "top-talent" isn't being harnessed properly.  This all needs to be figured out if we are going to have any shot at a Cup.  And I think it is a little more complicated than trading Alex Semin.  My biggest fear is that if it is the coach, we won't know until another catastrophic, early playoff exit.  And if we don't get our coaching/top-talent/system situation figured out til next summer - that does us no good.

* Mike Knuble is old!  And he had an o-k season last time around.  While there is no long-term exposure to him, I don't know how productive he will be this season as a top-6 forward.

* The Brooks Laich deal and the Joel Ward deal could go either way.  Only time will tell if these were savvy moves or if GMGM grossly overpaid for them.  In many ways this depends on the coach/system/top-talent issue I talked about earlier.  I like both Laich/Ward, but again, that only gets you so far......

* Tomas Vokoun is ultimatey unproven in the playoffs.  While a helluva pickup, we really don't know if he has playoff "nerves of steel".  I would like to think he does.  We really just don't know.


Where we are and Where we are going:

* According to Capgeek, we have $544,872 of cap space with a roster of 22 people.  We need to shift a couple people around and add a 23rd person to get a more accurate reading.

Goaltending and Defense:

* Goaltending is fine - in many ways.  But specifically, I mean that it is accurate on capgeek.  Vokoun and Neuvirth are our guys.

* On D:  Swap out Poti with Alzner.  Add Sean Collins.

* The 23rd person on our team (for my calculations) will be defenseman #8, Sean Collins. Tom Poti is LTIR'd.  I would argue we can re-sign Karl Alzner and add Sean Collins ($525,000) for the price of Tom Poti ($2.875M).

* So, on defense, while the people change a bit, generally speaking, we are talking no net change in cap space allotment.

Offense:

* On O:  Take out D.J. King and Jay Beagle.  Add Troy Brouwer.  And for now, add Mattias Sjogren.

* The 13th forward might wind up being Beagle or Cody Eakin.  But, Sjogren has the highest salary ($900k) so I'll use him.

* Initial money available = $544,872 cap space + 637,500 King + 512,500 Beagle = $1,694,872

* Subracting 900k Sjogren = $794,872 available to sign Troy Brouwer

* That's obviously not going to happen.  So, assuming $3M for Troy Brouwer, we'll be over the cap by $2.2M or so.  Hopefully, Brouwer is signed for a little less than that?  We shall see.....

Who gets shipped:

* Semin is most likely candidate.  But you can't just trade him for picks.  There goes the talent.  You have to get some decent, immediate talent ($3M in salary) in return for Semin.

* Any salary picked up from incoming player will obviously eat at the cap savings.  So, in a good trade, you are probably only saving 3.5M in cap space by trading Semin.

* Even if the Caps trade Semin, they'll still probably be "right at the cap" or ~$1M under it.  Is that really where we want to be heading into the season?


* So then what?  Trade Mike Green? Chimera?  Fehr?  Knuble?  How close to the cap is McPhee willing to be during the regular season?  At what point does it affect the quality of our current roster?


* And, of course, this all assumes Semin is tradeable.  What if no team wants him?  How the hell are we going to shed salary then?

* We shall see, but my point is that the Caps "cap situation" is a bit more dicey than I would have originally thought.



In summary:


I like what McPhee has done thus far.  The moves have either made the team grittier or more talented.  The team is better than when it got its ass-whooped by Tampa Bay in the 2nd round.

But, there is still some more juggling to do.  And I would argue that it is the upcoming trade and juggling (not what has already been done) that will determine whether or not McPhee had a successful summer.

I am excited for the upcoming season.  It is filled with lots of potential and promise.  But then again, aren't they all at this time of year?

We'll see what happens.  Get excited.  But don't go planning any parades just yet.  Long way to go......

Season Wrap-Up

So it is.  My first few months of blogging have come to an end.  I'm glad I did this - as starting a blog has helped me keep in better touch with the team from far away. It has also satisfied some of my journalism cravings.

The highlight of this experience has clearly been my two interviews (Mike Fornes and Charlie Skjodt/Brad Lutsch). Absolutely great to pretend for a few hours at a time that I am a member of the media.

I probably won't add any posts during the summer - as whatever awards/draft/free agency/development camp news there is can be handled by others.

Further, from a personal standpoint, I will be moving and also planning to start a new job.  So it is a time of transition for the Caps Degenerate.

But, next season I will hopefully be able to blog more frequently and in a more detailed fashion.  By fall, the transition period will have ended and I will likely be able to focus on this blog consistently.

Thank you very much for reading.  May we, one day, find out what it feels like to see the Caps win the Stanley Cup.

Oh, and if you happen to have any suggestions for what to include in this blog next season - please email me.

Capsdegenerate at gmail dot com

All too Familiar Feeling

In 2003, when Tampa Bay beat the Caps in 6 games, Ted Leonsis said that Tampa was the better team.  I always disagreed with that.

And I disagree with the theory that Tampa was the better team in 2011.  I will never think that they had more talent than us.

But, in 2003 and 2011 - Tampa proved to be a damn good team that wanted it more.

And they executed while the Caps didn't.  And one could argue Tampa out-coached the Caps too.

The Caps progress in the playoffs has stagnated while Tampa somehow seems like they are on the up-and-up for the second time in the past 10 years.

Any way you slice it, the Caps are done like dinner far too early.

Again.

We now get to watch the rest of the playoffs while coming to grips with the fact that, no, this isn't the year.

We'll get to see another team skate around with that Stanley Cup thing we've been chasing since the beginning of time.

How messed up would it be if while all of this self-promotion in DC was going on, the Lightning won the Cup in 2004 - blew their team up - and won the Cup again before Washington got a whiff of Lord Stanley?

The Caps face a summer of what should be drastic change.  We can analyze who stays and who goes later.  For now, just time to soak in that all too familiar anticlimactic feeling of an early playoff exit.

And unlike the past 3 playoff exits, there are no more excuses.  There are no alternative explanations.

The system - as we know it - is broken.

No spin.  No talk about how long it took Gretzky to win a Stanley Cup.  No asking for more time.  The new iteration of the Caps just isn't getting it done in the playoffs.

It sucks.  But it is time to stop defending them and face some harsh truths.

Not fun.

Yet, watching the Caps get eliminated never is........

No Joy in Capsville

Well, sometimes death comes in an annoying manner and it sets you off into a depression.  That's what happened last year with Montreal.  I couldn't even explain that 1st round exit.

But after watching Game 3 vs. Tampa tonight - I am at peace with the end of the season.  You add it up and this is Tampa's series.

Tampa has enough defense and goaltending to keep the Caps at bay.  They have a lot of talent on offense.  And whatever questions are left, the Caps shoot themselves in the foot to remove any doubt.

The Caps led 3 to 2 after the 2nd period.  And all they needed to do was play 20 more minutes of hockey to get back in the series.

They obviously did not want to do that.  No ref issues.  No dirty play from Tampa. No nothing.  Just the Caps laying an egg when they needed to play hockey the most.

The sad thing is, I have to go back on my last post.  I think Bruce Boudreau is done.  He is a regular season genius.

But, if there is a guy who didn't get it done in his 4 playoffs with the Caps - he is it. Too much talent to just make the 2nd round twice.

The Caps continue to piss on their window of opportunity.  They will soon face issues with losing free agents and determining if there are any "young guns" that need to be traded.

What is that magic system that will get the Caps to the promised land?  It seems as hard to find as that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

So, yes, tomorrow I will wake up and hope for a miracle.  I will watch Game 4 and root for the Caps.  That's just what I do.

And there is still that 2% chance that this post will become a quasi-collector's item.  After we go on to win the Cup, we will just laugh at how we felt when the Caps were down 3 to 0 to Tampa.

Like any Texas Hold'em degenerate clinging to one out to the river - there is always hope.  You're not dead until you are drawing dead.

But really, the straight flush never hits.  It certainly won't hit the Capitals.  Not Wednesday night.  Not this series.

One more hockey game before some very tough questions hit this franchise.  This promises to be a very depressing off-season for the Caps.

The media is getting behind the Caps.  The fans are getting behind the Caps.  The league is getting behind the Caps.

They just aren't getting it done.

It's not Mike Wilbon's fault. It's not Tony Kornheiser's fault. It's not ESPN's fault. It's not Scott Burnside's fault. Or Mike Milbury's fault. It's not Sidney Crosby's fault. It's not Canada's fault. It's not the Southeast Division's fault.

It's the team's fault.

At least I'll be clean-shaven and have a fresh haircut to deal with whatever fallout comes after Game 4.

Margin of Error Exhausted vs. Tampa

This has been a busy week for the Caps Degenerate from a personal standpoint.

It has also apparently been a busy night for our country, with President Obama announcing the death of Osama bin Laden.

So, blogging has taken a backseat over the last few days.

That said, the hockey has continued. I'm still a little upset they didn't postpone the games and make sure I was ready to go :).  I keed, I keed.

As we all know, the Caps lost Games 1 and 2 at home to Tampa Bay. The season could be over by Wednesday.

Then again, in 2003, the Caps won Games 1 and 2 against Tampa Bay on the road -- only to drop the next four and lose the series.

So, maybe this weekend just sets up some Triple-OT goal the Caps will score in Game 6 to end the series. You never know, right?

Thus we try and explain the mood that I'm in following the pair of losses handed to us by the Lightning.

I obviously hate losing. The Caps have taken stretches of each game off -- and that is unacceptable. And our power play sucks. I mean, it's just horrendous.

I honestly think the Caps would be better off declining the man-advantage whenever a penalty is called on the Lightning. Can they do that? They should!

You also have to give credit where credit is due. The Lightning have established a maddeningly smart pattern of playing just enough defense and getting (much more than enough) goaltending to keep the Caps from opening the scoring floodgates.

Then, they come down the ice - and they use their finishers to finish. I don't think Neuvy is playing all that bad.

But, Tampa is getting goals from their goal scorers -- or the Capitals defensemen. And they are scoring with less effort than the Caps.      

At the end of the day, that makes a huge difference. Tampa is capitalizing on its chances, Washington is not.

So, there is some luck involved - and there are some tangible reasons why the Lightning are up on the Caps 2 games to 0.

I think the good news is that without question -- the Caps are the better team in this series. And if they tighten up their game a little bit and finish their chances, they very well could win this series in 6 games.

The Caps still should win the series in 6, in my humble opinion. But, emphasis on "should" (not "will").

The Caps also very well could be telling the starter at the first tee on Thursday morning that they were clearly a better team than Tampa.

Where does that get the franchise?

My friend, who was kind enough to let me watch on his HDTV, asked me if Bruce Boudreau gets shitcanned if the Caps lose this series.

I said probably not. I don't think there is any shame in losing to this Tampa team. I think Stevie Y. is a genius and the Lightning are going to be contenders for years to come -- including this year.

But really, the window is closing. The Caps reign over the SE division is coming to a close (see Tampa). And so far, all this reign has gotten the Caps is two trips to the second round.

Maybe this year is better than last year. But, it's still not enough.

Which is why the Caps have to get back in this series before it actually is over.

Whatever urgency the team has played with needs to be quadrupled. Fuck next year. Fuck thinking long-term. Now's the fucking time.

The Caps have to act like the world ends in July and this is their last chance to win the Stanley Cup. They need to kick the shit out of Tampa in Game 3.

Not just win. Send a powerful message.

This series is by no means over yet. The Caps can and should win the series in 6.

But will the Caps make it happen?