MoneyCaps: The (Almost) Halfway Point

With my apologies to Tomas Kundratek, who did not get called up in time for my super-special analysis, I present to you some ad-hoc number crunching.

In my attempt to become more data savvy, I thought I would get in some practice. As is the case with the book Moneyball, I thought it would be fun to link Caps' player salaries with their performance.

Hopefully there is a conversation to be had here (part fun, part serious).  For this initial round, I merely took players' point totals and projected them out to 82 games.  From there, I divided that number into their cap hit.

Obviously, this assumes they will be able to play somewhere in the ballpark of 82 games.  One might cough and vomit when looking at Mike Green's generous point projections.  You are free to do so.  But, some common denominator was needed. And, in all seriousness, it does show his value -- or lack thereof -- when healthy (even if he never is and has no prayer of cracking 20 games this season!).

This data sticks to a player's offensive value.  We'll get into other metrics later. Stats are from hockeydb.  Cap info is from Capgeek.  It is current as of January 10th, 2012.

Keep in mind, the higher the $ amount in the righthand column, the more expensive it is to the Caps to get a point from that player. As such, the lower the offensive value for that player.

I'll give you a hint:  I don't like that Alex Ovechkin is the first name to pop up.......

*You can click on any chart to enlarge it*


                                 Caps Forwards (10 games or more)

                                     Defensemen (10 games or more)

                     Forwards and Defensemen Combined (10 games or more)

               

Getting on the Bus, the C-bus

Last night was a very special night indeed.  Simply put, the Caps' Saturday night game vs. the Columbus Blue Jackets was within driving distance for me - so I was at Nationwide Arena cheering for (our) boys in red, white, and blue.

When I lived in DC I probably took my proximity to Verizon Center for granted.  As life has taken me away from Washington over the last few years, it has become increasingly difficult to see the Caps live (especially because "away" means proximity to Western Conference teams the Caps visit 1x/season at most -- which does not guarantee a weekend game that is doable).  Sure, sports bars and NHL Center Ice exist.  But, make no mistake about it, hockey is a game to be seen in-person.  And it is always better to see the Caps play hockey in-person.

Even if they only show up for 8 minutes of the game :)

Before we get to the game itself, let me say this.  It was truly awesome to see how many Caps fans were in Columbus.  I am horrible at estimating numbers.  And, no, it was not anywhere near the Detroit invasion of the 1998 final.  But, there is no way in hell Columbus sells out that game without all the red rockers in attendance.  I met some of the dedicated Caps Road Crew members at R Bar before the game - who drove from DC.  But, rest assured, they were far from the only Caps fans at Nationwide Arena last night.

Between all of the Caps fans roaming the Arena District and the presence of some chain restaurants I enjoyed in DC, but not in my current town (Ted's Montana Grill, Gordon Biersch, BD's) - it was a very welcomed dose of home on the road.  I guess I should be thankful that the format taking effect next season guarantees a team will visit every other arena one time per season (much better than the current 'maybe, maybe not' policy).

So, anyway, aside from conjuring up feelings of nostalgia - the hockey game had a very important two points on the line.

The big difference in preparation for this game is that Columbus had Friday off after a Thursday win in Dallas.  Washington was "fresh off the plane" after their Friday night home victory vs. Buffalo.  And let's face it, Buffalo is in our conference and was 1 point behind us in the standings coming into Friday's game.  They have spanked us twice this season.  Columbus is in the other conference and is the NHL's worst team.  So, while Columbus most likely viewed the Caps as a "statement game" and threw everything they had at us --- Washington probably viewed the game in Columbus as the only thing standing between them and New Year's Sex.

Of course, it shouldn't be that way.  The Caps certainly have not been playing consistently enough to view games as afterthoughts.  They certainly have not displayed that blue-collar work ethic enough to justify looking down on teams.  And, as the Caps are still on the outside looking in of the playoff race, they certainly are in no position to piss away points in the standings.

So I will leave it to you to decide.  Did they coast their way through the first 40 minutes of the game for no good reason?  Or, were the Caps justifiably tired as they were playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the back-end of a back-to-back set?  Did they get cocky after big wins vs. the Rangers and Sabres?  Or, was Columbus just that good on Saturday night?

Whatever you think, it is with mixed emotions that I announce the Washington Capitals that get spanked in games are gone.  The Caps that we all know, love, and hate are officially back.

Yes, those Washington Capitals that give no indication whatsoever that they give a flying fuck about the game until the 3rd period.  Those Washington Capitals who put together one 5 to 10 minute stretch of disgustingly awesome hockey and have that stretch carry them through the game.  The Caps that watch their two Russian superstar snipers light up the scoreboard.  The Caps that can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat like it ain't a 'thang.

Welcome back, Cardiac Caps.

God bless Columbus.  It must be frustrating to be a Blue Jacket.  They certainly owned the first two periods.  They brought energy.  They threw bodies around.  They generated scoring chances.  Derek Dorsett did an amazing job of agitating Alex Ovechkin (even goading AO into going to the penalty box at the same time as Dorsett - a trade the Blue Jackets are obviously willing to make).

I don't know who the hell John Moore is and I had no idea Samuel Pahlsson was still in the league.  But, those were well earned goals by them.  Both of them, btw, got their 2nd tally of the season with their goals last night.

At second intermission, I even tweeted that I thought the Caps had no chance of coming back.  They looked dead and uninspired.  It just wasn't their night.

And there's the rub.  Just like that, it was their night and they played like the game was never in any doubt.

Ovechkin has the puck squirt over to him.  Boom!  1-2.  A few minutes later, Alexander Semin shows off the dirtiest wrist shot in the league.  We're tied at 2.  Not even a minute later and Dennis Wideman drills it past Steve Mason.  We're up 3-2.  A PPG by Ovechkin and this one is in the bag.  4-2 Caps.  Ok, they had to kill a penalty after that.  But, they did.  And, they won.

Finally, three straight wins.  The last time the Caps did that was the the final three games of their 7-0 start to the season.

With wins against NYR, BUF, and CBJ seemingly the Caps are starting to work their way out of their doldrums.  But, where to?  Maybe we've just gone from the Caps who weren't even going to make the playoffs back to the Caps who will make the playoffs only to crash out in early rounds.

But the thing is, if I had to pick between those two types of Caps (play like shit and not even make the playoffs vs. string together enough good hockey to get into the playoffs but most likely crash out early), the one I'd have is rather obvious.  Because only one of those choices allows for the possibility of finally mastering the playoffs and winning the whole damn thing.  You gotta be in it to win it, right?

Well, for many reasons personal and hockey related, I am more than happy to leave 2011 in the past.  I look forward to 2012.  And so should the Caps.

Because while both myself and the Caps struggled for most of 2011 - we enter 2012 with something we are more than happy to see again:

MOMENTUM!

Happy New Year.  May you have an awesome 2012........

Progress: Capitals 3, Senators 2 (OT)

Maybe my standards are just artificially low because the Caps have been going through a prolonged rough patch.  However, while there is certainly more work to be done - it seems like the Caps have an extra bounce in their stride again.  It looks like they have that energy and confidence they were lacking - at least there is a lot more of it there than any time of recent memory.  It looks like game-by-game, Dale Hunter's system is starting to sink in.  There are indeed signs of life from the boys in red.

While Neuvy looked relatively good given how he's been playing, I thought he should have had Ottawa's first goal.  I also don't like the fact that the game went to OT.  The Caps should have closed this out in regulation.  But, obviously, if it's going to go to OT - it might as well end the way it did :).  Our PP needs to get back on track if we are truly going to be an elite team - and right now it is just heinous.  I thought given the amount of pressure we put on Craig Anderson - our ability to finish chances is still lacking.  Of course, having chances to not convert on is a huge step forward from simply not having any scoring chances.

All that said, much, much better.  Backstrom's goal was a sick wrister.  Brouwer's goal came from a beautiful chain of passes (Ovi and Wideman get the assists). And, Brooks Laich's goal was just blazing speed from him as well as Jason Chimera.  For a "defensive system", there was certainly a lot of offensive pressure and offensive beauty generated by the Caps.  That alleviates a big concern of mine (which I address in my last post).  The Caps had 35 shots on goal, many of them high quality.  A little more confidence from their finishers - and this very well could have been a 4-1 or 5-2 decisive win.  Good thing the Caps have a chance to pull that feat off vs. Ottawa on Wednesday in Ontario.......

The Caps also never trailed in this game.  That only happened one time during the month of November (4-3 OT win vs. Winnipeg on 11/23/11 -- ok, they never trailed New Jersey at home on 11/12 until they lost the shootout -- call that what you want).  The Caps only committed one penalty and it was in the first period (a very blatant slash by Jason Chimera on Daniel Alfredsson).  Jeff Halpern was 7 for 8 from the faceoff dot.  Only one Capital was a - in the +/- category (John Carlson,    -1).   Alex Ovechkin had a respectable 4 shots on goal, including one breakaway (Laich had 6 SOG and Chimera had 5).  In addition to scoring the team's second goal, Troy Brouwer led the Caps with 6 hits.

Many other bloggers/analysts have pointed out the shorter shift lengths for the Caps - especially on the penalty kill.  The penalty kill looked good (as did the Capitals' ability to not need many penalty kills).  So, I guess the special teams area of improvement would be the dreaded power play.

Long story short - a shitload of progress tonight.  The Caps still need to get back to work.  They have still been playing poorly more often than they have played well.

But, they have something to build on and Huntsy has his first win as an NHL coach.  Let's roll the dice and see what it gets us on Monday night - with the big tilt vs. the SE Division's leading team, the Washington Capitals alumni club of South Florida......I mean the Florida Panthers.

 

Patience (aka "Rebuilding the Rebuild")

Well, there certainly have been better days in Capsville.  Of course, when being honest with oneself - those better days were never that much better.  Nevertheless, things aren't going so well.

If the season were to end right this second - the Capitals would not make the playoffs.  Granted, they are the #9 seed and have 1-game in hand on the #8 seed, the Ottawa Senators (with 58 games left to play in the season and only trailing by 1-standings point).  But, they are on the outside looking in during a season in which the playoffs are supposed to be assumed.

The Caps are about to play said Ottawa Senators tonight in an attempt to get Dale Hunter his first win as the Caps' head coach.  It would also snap a 4-game losing streak (the first two of which, cost Bruce Boudreau his job).

In fact, the Caps have lost 8 of the last 10 games and are unrecognizable from the big swinging dicks that started the season 7-0 and beat the Detroit Red Wings 7-1.

You could argue til the cows come home about when this started.  George McPhee said he noticed stuff during training camp.  Some people (namely, Mike Milbury, Canadians, and people who jerk off to Sidney Crosby (with a lot of overlap between those categories)) would lead you to believe the Ovechkin-era Caps have always been overrated.

Maybe the Montreal series should have been a red flag.  Or the Tampa series.  Or the way they got outplayed in Vancouver - or gave away the game on Long Island - or got throttled by Dallas.  Maybe the wins against Pittsburgh and Tampa earlier this season were lucky.  Maybe the Caps are fine and it is just a matter of getting Mike Green healthy again.  Ok, scratch that last thought.  The Caps are not fine.

If there is one thing that we can all agree upon, it is the Caps are NOT fine.  Bruce Boudreau did magical things for this team from 2007 until this week (just not THE magical thing).  But, George McPhee was spot-on when he said that Boudreau's tank was emptied.

The problem is - that really is all we know.  Yeah, it was time for a change.  But, to what?  We've eliminated one variable, but must now focus on the rest of the variables.

Alex Ovechkin has 8 goals in 24 games.  Alex Semin has 5 goals in 23 games.  Ovechkin isn't even on pace for 30 goals.  Semin isn't even on pace for 20 goals.

Meanwhile, Dale Hunter's strategy will focus on defense - which will, in theory, lead to more offense.  It does not, however, focus on letting freewheeling Russian pimps be freewheeling Russian pimps.

It is hard to say how I feel about that.  My gut instinct would be that you need to take the chains off Ovechkin and Semin - that Caps fans have bought a bunch of bullshit produced by Caps-haters (the BS being that Ovi and Semin are cancers).

But, the truth is, as much as I hate the stupid stereotype that Russians have bad attitudes (see, Detroit Red Wings and the "Russian Five") - I think Ovechkin and Semin have become predictable.

I think the league has figured out Ovechkin and Semin and while these two may care - I don't see them doing what is necessary to become less predictable.

We will see flashes of brilliance from Ovechkin and Semin - for sure.  But, the frequency and brightness of these flashes will be reduced over time if things stay constant.

I don't care if they care.  I care if they work at mixing up their skill-set.

Until they do, it kind of takes care of any plan that involves having the Caps become more run-and-gun.  But, then, if the Caps are going to prioritize defense - will that leave room for Ovi and Semin?

I don't know if I buy the whole "defense leads to offense" strategy.  If the goal is to win every game 2 to 1 or 1 to 0 - that's fine.

My only real vested interest is in seeing the Caps score at least 1 more goal than the other team 16 times during the playoffs.  That leaves a lot of room for being boring - and that's ok.

But, as many have noted, the high-flying show is on hiatus.  There will be no 5 to 1 victories in the near future - I do not believe.  Dale Hunter might believe that, I do not.

Ovechkin and Semin will not have the chance to run-and-gun - even if they could still do it.  And I don't know if Alex Ovechkin and Alex Semin will fit in with the high-flying show on hiatus.

That's not to say they will play horribly.  But, they'll be very expensive pieces to the boring show.  And, with the Caps at the salary cap - does that mean they will be dealt to free up some space?

That would not be terribly shocking for Semin - I think this is his last season as a Cap regardless - it's just a matter of whether or not he's dealt before the deadline.  I don't see them re-signing him in the offseason.

Obviously, it would be huge news if Ovechkin is dealt.  Mike Milbury and all of Canada would rejoice that they were right all along.

It would be a telltale sign that the once promising rebuild failed.  We might not have to start from scratch - as we did with the Jagr firesale - but it would be equally discouraging.

I can't imagine the impact on the fanbase that trading Ovechkin would have.  Attendance would certainly suffer.  Die-hard fans would point to the number of times Ted Leonsis has asked for patience - only to then ask for more patience.

Frustration would boil over - even if it happened to be the right thing to do.  Even if trading Oveckin simply meant the Caps were self-aware and on track to implement their defensive strategy - trading Ovechkin would be horrible.

Thankfully for Ovechkin and Semin, the entire team is playing like shit.  So, it's hard to pin all of this on them.  The goaltending has been shit and the defense has been shit too.

Jason Chimera is one of a few bright spots on this team.  But, with everyone else needing a swift kick in the ass - Alex Ovechkin and Alex Semin must be given a chance to fit into Dale Hunter's system.

Dale Hunter must be given time to implement his strategy.  Two 2 to 1 losses do not a bad coach make.  The good news is that there is plenty of time to turn this around.

The problem is that I have no idea whether or not Dale Hunter's approach will work - or if the right pieces are there to make it work.  I just know that Bruce Boudreau's approach stopped working.

I still want to believe in Alex Ovechkin.  I still want to believe in Alex Semin.  I still want to believe in the Caps.  I want to believe in Dale Hunter as a coach in the NHL (and George McPhee and Ted Leonsis for that matter).

I just don't know if Ovechkin, Semin, and Hunter will co-exist on the Caps.  And I don't know if the Caps will do what is necessary to align their strategy and their personnel.

Until then, without blaming a specific person, there could be more dysfunction and underachievement.......

Back on the Saddle

It has been more than three months since my last post.  Seemingly life has gotten in the way of hockey (and that is UNACCEPTABLE).  My period of unemployment came to an end and I changed towns again - a recurring theme in my life since leaving DC in 2008.  However, this time - there is no planned move on the horizon.

While having income again is a good thing (namely, because income can be used to purchase the NHL Center Ice package) - it leads to non-hockey responsibility.  Getting to know a new town and a new corporation has been my focus.  It's amazing that some companies expect you to talk about their primary line of business all day instead of hockey.  The nerve!!!!!!

I have been able to watch Caps games, mind you.  I've seen them all this season (7-0 seems like a decade ago!).  However, when I've been watching them I've been doing so less critically than an aspiring blogger should.  By the time I would get around to watching the game - my brain was interested in shutting off.

To be sure, if you want to make a living in this business - you have to do your research and look at the stats.  You can't just say "Roman Hamrlik played like shit" (even though sometimes it is painfully obvious).  You have to look at his +/-.  You have to know +/- is a BS statistic.  You have to look at Corsi numbers and analyze the even-strength chances Hamrlik has given up per 60-minutes.  You should know his defensive pairings and which opponents he is matching up with.

Somewhere between my transition, a lack of confidence, not knowing what this blog's niche is, and the underrated beauty of just saying "Roman Hamrlik played like shit" without having to defend your position with stats - this blog fell off the map.

The truth is, I still don't know what this blog will be.  I'd love to make a habit of regular interviews.  I thought the Mike Fornes interview was an overwhelming success.  Even as of last week, someone has found it on the net and commented on it.

But, that's the problem.  It seems like that interview accomplished everything I wanted my blog to accomplish.  It seems like there is nowhere to go but down.

Speaking with Mike Fornes encapsulated everything that following the Caps as a kid meant to me.  Each subsequent post has seemed "a little off".

The truth is, I'm not Neil Greenberg.  I'm not going to be the guy who adds to the "Moneypuck" discussion.  And, I'm not anywhere near the superfan that JP over at Japers' Rink is (or anyone on that blog, for that matter).

But, something keeps me watching the Caps game in and game out - no matter where life takes me.  And something gets me back on the laptop every now and then.  I played when I was younger.  I even officiated for a bit.  There was also the idea that ran through my head, which was to be a hockey announcer.

I'd like to think I have something to add to the blogosphere.  I'm not yet sure what that is, though.  So, I keep plowing through the experimental stage of this blog - hoping it leads the blog to "the next level" (whatever that is!) - as opposed to having the blog fade into oblivion.

We will see.  I don't know if I'm in this to clear my head, to get readers, or to somehow have my opinion validated as a "quasi-expert" (maybe all three????).

It's kind of like the answer to our burning question of burning questions:  "Will the Caps ever win the Stanley Cup?" ----

Only time will tell.