Caps Mediocrity

The good news about last night is that I had to stay in either way.  My early Saturday necessitated that. As such, I did not miss out on a hoppin' party or a date night to catch the Caps/'Canes game.

That's about the only good news that came out of the game. The roller coaster that is the Caps' 2011-2012 season continues. One game we look great. The next game we look like an ECHL team.

That got me thinking about whether or not the Caps' opponent plays into the Caps' performance. How are we against teams that are above .500? Below .500?

So, that's what I tracked. I went back and looked at the opposition's record coming into their game against the Caps. I also separated the Boudreau era from the Hunter era.

Long story short, Hunter has pretty much the same winning percentage as Boudreau - but Hunter has had easier opponents.

That's not to say that Boudreau hadn't lost the team or needed to go - but hopefully it is a friendly reminder that the Caps need pick it up several notches. The returns from Huntsy being the coach have been far from realized.

The Caps' overall record against above .500 teams isn't horrible (.500 on the nose), but it isn't stellar either. With the Caps backing into a low seed in the playoffs - it seems like getting bounced in Round 1 is the most likely outcome.

An artificially inflated #3 seed might buy the Caps a trip to the 2nd round. But, that's about all you can hope for right about now.  Of course, this all assumes the Caps make the playoffs.

Last season, a 2nd round exit was cause for anger. If we are being truthful with ourselves, the way the team is playing - a 2nd round exit would be cause for celebration.

And in case you were wondering:  the average win percentage of opponents entering a game with the Caps is .497 (simply add all 46 win %'s and divide by 46). So, if anything, we are getting off a little easy with our schedule thus far.

Plus, if you're a true math nerd and think simply averaging the win percentages is not the right way to do it - Caps opponents to-date combine for 516 W, 435 L, and 130 OTL. That would be a win percentage of .477 - even worse than the average......

Your move, Caps.  I'm all for being pleasantly surprised..........



*Click on any image to enlarge it*

Team $ Efficiency

As I type this, the Washington Capitals are playing the Pittsburgh Penguins. Due to the way NHL Gamecenter works, I will have to watch the game in a few hours. When games are on NBCSN or NHLN, the games are blacked out on NHL Gamecenter. If your cable provider offers NBCSN and NHLN, well, that really isn't that big of a deal. If you live where I live, it is an issue.

In the meantime, I thought I'd take a look at each team's performance in the standings relative to their payroll.  I did a few spreadsheets that look at the money each team has to pay per standings point. I then compare their rank in that category to their projected finish in the regular season (pure rank order, not accounting for division leaders getting the top 3 seeds).

When you get to the difference between the rankings of "Payroll $/Pts 82" and "Pts/82" you are getting a handle on whether or not a team is outperforming its (in)efficiency.

For instance, the Washington Capitals have the 11th-highest (as in worst) Payroll$/Pts82 total in the Eastern Conference. That is horribly inefficient. 

The silver lining is, that given the Capitals are projected to finish 9th in the Eastern Conference, they have a +2 difference and are outperforming their payroll inefficiency.

Of course, they would still be playing golf by mid-April. But, what can you do? Hopefully Mr. DVR will have some good news for me in a few hours.

Standings are from NHL.com prior to the action on Wednesday night.  So, the Caps/Pens game and the Devils/Oilers games are not included.  Cap info is from Capgeek.

* You can click on any chart to enlarge it*

Eastern Conference:

Western Conference:

MoneyCaps: The (Almost) Halfway Point

With my apologies to Tomas Kundratek, who did not get called up in time for my super-special analysis, I present to you some ad-hoc number crunching.

In my attempt to become more data savvy, I thought I would get in some practice. As is the case with the book Moneyball, I thought it would be fun to link Caps' player salaries with their performance.

Hopefully there is a conversation to be had here (part fun, part serious).  For this initial round, I merely took players' point totals and projected them out to 82 games.  From there, I divided that number into their cap hit.

Obviously, this assumes they will be able to play somewhere in the ballpark of 82 games.  One might cough and vomit when looking at Mike Green's generous point projections.  You are free to do so.  But, some common denominator was needed. And, in all seriousness, it does show his value -- or lack thereof -- when healthy (even if he never is and has no prayer of cracking 20 games this season!).

This data sticks to a player's offensive value.  We'll get into other metrics later. Stats are from hockeydb.  Cap info is from Capgeek.  It is current as of January 10th, 2012.

Keep in mind, the higher the $ amount in the righthand column, the more expensive it is to the Caps to get a point from that player. As such, the lower the offensive value for that player.

I'll give you a hint:  I don't like that Alex Ovechkin is the first name to pop up.......

*You can click on any chart to enlarge it*


                                 Caps Forwards (10 games or more)

                                     Defensemen (10 games or more)

                     Forwards and Defensemen Combined (10 games or more)

               

Getting on the Bus, the C-bus

Last night was a very special night indeed.  Simply put, the Caps' Saturday night game vs. the Columbus Blue Jackets was within driving distance for me - so I was at Nationwide Arena cheering for (our) boys in red, white, and blue.

When I lived in DC I probably took my proximity to Verizon Center for granted.  As life has taken me away from Washington over the last few years, it has become increasingly difficult to see the Caps live (especially because "away" means proximity to Western Conference teams the Caps visit 1x/season at most -- which does not guarantee a weekend game that is doable).  Sure, sports bars and NHL Center Ice exist.  But, make no mistake about it, hockey is a game to be seen in-person.  And it is always better to see the Caps play hockey in-person.

Even if they only show up for 8 minutes of the game :)

Before we get to the game itself, let me say this.  It was truly awesome to see how many Caps fans were in Columbus.  I am horrible at estimating numbers.  And, no, it was not anywhere near the Detroit invasion of the 1998 final.  But, there is no way in hell Columbus sells out that game without all the red rockers in attendance.  I met some of the dedicated Caps Road Crew members at R Bar before the game - who drove from DC.  But, rest assured, they were far from the only Caps fans at Nationwide Arena last night.

Between all of the Caps fans roaming the Arena District and the presence of some chain restaurants I enjoyed in DC, but not in my current town (Ted's Montana Grill, Gordon Biersch, BD's) - it was a very welcomed dose of home on the road.  I guess I should be thankful that the format taking effect next season guarantees a team will visit every other arena one time per season (much better than the current 'maybe, maybe not' policy).

So, anyway, aside from conjuring up feelings of nostalgia - the hockey game had a very important two points on the line.

The big difference in preparation for this game is that Columbus had Friday off after a Thursday win in Dallas.  Washington was "fresh off the plane" after their Friday night home victory vs. Buffalo.  And let's face it, Buffalo is in our conference and was 1 point behind us in the standings coming into Friday's game.  They have spanked us twice this season.  Columbus is in the other conference and is the NHL's worst team.  So, while Columbus most likely viewed the Caps as a "statement game" and threw everything they had at us --- Washington probably viewed the game in Columbus as the only thing standing between them and New Year's Sex.

Of course, it shouldn't be that way.  The Caps certainly have not been playing consistently enough to view games as afterthoughts.  They certainly have not displayed that blue-collar work ethic enough to justify looking down on teams.  And, as the Caps are still on the outside looking in of the playoff race, they certainly are in no position to piss away points in the standings.

So I will leave it to you to decide.  Did they coast their way through the first 40 minutes of the game for no good reason?  Or, were the Caps justifiably tired as they were playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the back-end of a back-to-back set?  Did they get cocky after big wins vs. the Rangers and Sabres?  Or, was Columbus just that good on Saturday night?

Whatever you think, it is with mixed emotions that I announce the Washington Capitals that get spanked in games are gone.  The Caps that we all know, love, and hate are officially back.

Yes, those Washington Capitals that give no indication whatsoever that they give a flying fuck about the game until the 3rd period.  Those Washington Capitals who put together one 5 to 10 minute stretch of disgustingly awesome hockey and have that stretch carry them through the game.  The Caps that watch their two Russian superstar snipers light up the scoreboard.  The Caps that can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat like it ain't a 'thang.

Welcome back, Cardiac Caps.

God bless Columbus.  It must be frustrating to be a Blue Jacket.  They certainly owned the first two periods.  They brought energy.  They threw bodies around.  They generated scoring chances.  Derek Dorsett did an amazing job of agitating Alex Ovechkin (even goading AO into going to the penalty box at the same time as Dorsett - a trade the Blue Jackets are obviously willing to make).

I don't know who the hell John Moore is and I had no idea Samuel Pahlsson was still in the league.  But, those were well earned goals by them.  Both of them, btw, got their 2nd tally of the season with their goals last night.

At second intermission, I even tweeted that I thought the Caps had no chance of coming back.  They looked dead and uninspired.  It just wasn't their night.

And there's the rub.  Just like that, it was their night and they played like the game was never in any doubt.

Ovechkin has the puck squirt over to him.  Boom!  1-2.  A few minutes later, Alexander Semin shows off the dirtiest wrist shot in the league.  We're tied at 2.  Not even a minute later and Dennis Wideman drills it past Steve Mason.  We're up 3-2.  A PPG by Ovechkin and this one is in the bag.  4-2 Caps.  Ok, they had to kill a penalty after that.  But, they did.  And, they won.

Finally, three straight wins.  The last time the Caps did that was the the final three games of their 7-0 start to the season.

With wins against NYR, BUF, and CBJ seemingly the Caps are starting to work their way out of their doldrums.  But, where to?  Maybe we've just gone from the Caps who weren't even going to make the playoffs back to the Caps who will make the playoffs only to crash out in early rounds.

But the thing is, if I had to pick between those two types of Caps (play like shit and not even make the playoffs vs. string together enough good hockey to get into the playoffs but most likely crash out early), the one I'd have is rather obvious.  Because only one of those choices allows for the possibility of finally mastering the playoffs and winning the whole damn thing.  You gotta be in it to win it, right?

Well, for many reasons personal and hockey related, I am more than happy to leave 2011 in the past.  I look forward to 2012.  And so should the Caps.

Because while both myself and the Caps struggled for most of 2011 - we enter 2012 with something we are more than happy to see again:

MOMENTUM!

Happy New Year.  May you have an awesome 2012........