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Saturday, January 21, 2012

Caps Mediocrity

The good news about last night is that I had to stay in either way.  My early Saturday necessitated that. As such, I did not miss out on a hoppin' party or a date night to catch the Caps/'Canes game.

That's about the only good news that came out of the game. The roller coaster that is the Caps' 2011-2012 season continues. One game we look great. The next game we look like an ECHL team.

That got me thinking about whether or not the Caps' opponent plays into the Caps' performance. How are we against teams that are above .500? Below .500?

So, that's what I tracked. I went back and looked at the opposition's record coming into their game against the Caps. I also separated the Boudreau era from the Hunter era.

Long story short, Hunter has pretty much the same winning percentage as Boudreau - but Hunter has had easier opponents.

That's not to say that Boudreau hadn't lost the team or needed to go - but hopefully it is a friendly reminder that the Caps need pick it up several notches. The returns from Huntsy being the coach have been far from realized.

The Caps' overall record against above .500 teams isn't horrible (.500 on the nose), but it isn't stellar either. With the Caps backing into a low seed in the playoffs - it seems like getting bounced in Round 1 is the most likely outcome.

An artificially inflated #3 seed might buy the Caps a trip to the 2nd round. But, that's about all you can hope for right about now.  Of course, this all assumes the Caps make the playoffs.

Last season, a 2nd round exit was cause for anger. If we are being truthful with ourselves, the way the team is playing - a 2nd round exit would be cause for celebration.

And in case you were wondering:  the average win percentage of opponents entering a game with the Caps is .497 (simply add all 46 win %'s and divide by 46). So, if anything, we are getting off a little easy with our schedule thus far.

Plus, if you're a true math nerd and think simply averaging the win percentages is not the right way to do it - Caps opponents to-date combine for 516 W, 435 L, and 130 OTL. That would be a win percentage of .477 - even worse than the average......

Your move, Caps.  I'm all for being pleasantly surprised..........

*Click on any image to enlarge it*

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